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Brazil's citrus sector faces uncertainty as orange production declines

Following the resurgence of rainfall in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro from October 24 onwards, the outlook for the 2025/26 season remains uncertain. The post-rainfall flowering was deemed satisfactory, yet the crop's development hinges on the forthcoming seasonal weather conditions.

Fundecitrus has pegged the 2024/25 orange crop at 223.14 million 40.8-kilo boxes, marking a 27.4% decline from the 2023/24 season. This downturn is attributed to weather adversities that have plagued production for five consecutive seasons, leading to constrained juice inventories.

According to Cepea, the 2024/25 season may conclude with Brazilian orange juice stocks at a critical low, underscoring the necessity for an exceptionally fruitful 2025/26 season to facilitate a modest recovery. Despite a projected decrease in exports for the 2024/25 season, the reduced volume of fruit processed is expected to keep industrial demand elevated.

Additionally, with Florida experiencing dwindling inventories, the state may augment its imports from Brazil, potentially stabilizing domestic market prices. This scenario is compounded by limited production and stock levels in Brazil, alongside a USDA report from December 10 indicating a 20% decrease in the 2024/25 orange crop in Florida, primarily due to citrus greening disease and the impact of Hurricane Milton.

The prevailing conditions in the Brazilian citrus sector are likely to bolster prices throughout 2025.

Source: CEPEA

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