Florida's citrus industry faces a challenging 2024-2025 season, with the USDA forecasting significant declines in production compared to the previous year. Despite stable projections for some crops since December, issues like smaller fruit sizes and higher-than-average droppage rates are impacting yields across the state. Here is a detailed breakdown of the forecast:
The USDA Agricultural Statistics Board has released its 2024-2025 Florida citrus forecast, projecting total orange production at 12.0 million boxes, unchanged from the December forecast. If realized, this would represent a 33% decrease compared to last season's final production. The forecast includes 5.00 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges, which encompass early, mid-season, and Navel varieties, and 7.00 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression model was used for comparison, excluding the 2017-2018 and 2022-2023 seasons, which were affected by Hurricanes Irma, Ian, and Nicole.
Non-Valencia orange production is projected at 5.00 million boxes. The final fruit size is smaller than average, requiring 327 pieces per 90-pound box. Droppage for non-Valencia oranges, excluding Navels, is above the historical maximum at 56%. The Navel orange forecast, included within the non-Valencia total, stands at 150,000 boxes, accounting for 3% of the non-Valencia production. Valencia orange production is projected at 7.00 million boxes, with average fruit size and droppage currently above the historical maximum. Droppage is also expected to remain above the maximum at harvest.
The grapefruit production forecast remains at 1.20 million boxes, unchanged from December and down 33% from last season's final production. Red grapefruit accounts for 1.05 million boxes, with fruit size projected to exceed the historical maximum, though dropping is also expected to remain above the maximum. White grapefruit production is forecast at 150,000 boxes, with above-average fruit size and droppage above the historical maximum.
The lemon forecast has increased by 100,000 boxes since October, now standing at 600,000 boxes. In contrast, the tangerine and mandarin forecast has been adjusted downward by 14% since December to 300,000 boxes, representing a 33% decline from last season's utilization of 450,000 boxes. This total includes all certified tangerine and tangelo varieties.
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For more information:
USDA
Tel: +1 (202) 720-2791
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www.usda.gov