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Switching phase of the supply

Global sweet orange market prices have risen to varying degrees

In May, sweet oranges in the northern hemisphere entered the last season of sales, and there was only a small supply of sweet oranges in the southern hemisphere, driving the price of the global sweet orange market upward. During the period, the supply of sweet oranges in the high-inflation U.S. sweet orange market was tightened, and the price remained high. In China, the import volume during the production season has been greatly reduced and the import structure has been optimized. The market price of sweet oranges in China has maintained a double-digit year-on-year increase. The supply of local sweet oranges such as in Spain and Italy began to tighten, and prices in the EU wholesale market rose slightly.

At the same time, the sweet oranges for juicing in the southern hemisphere have not yet been on the market in large quantities, and the global frozen concentrated orange juice futures contract price remains at a high level. Entering June, sweet oranges in the southern hemisphere gradually dominate the global market supply, while the increase or decrease in consumer demand in the northern hemisphere will determine the price trend in the next stage.

Asian sweet orange market: The import volume of competing products in the production season has been greatly reduced, and the price of domestic navel oranges has been steadily pushed up in the last season of sales
In May, the domestic pandemic control was partially relieved, and the sales channels for sweet oranges were smoother. However, the supply of late-ripening sweet oranges in China is coming to an end one after another, and the superimposed import volume has decreased significantly year-on-year. The average weekly wholesale price of navel oranges in China has steadily increased, with a year-on-year increase of double digits.

During the same period, China's imports decreased significantly year-on-year, especially for Egyptian sweet oranges. In May, China imported 15,900 tons of sweet oranges, up 8.03% month-on-month and down 59.48% year-on-year. Among them, the import volume from Egypt reached 11,900 tons, up 25.75% month-on-month and down 58.65% year-on-year; the import volume from the United States was 3,300 tons, up 5.18% month-on-month and down 66.70% year-on-year. In addition, the sales of Egyptian summer oranges in the domestic market is slow, and the impact on the price trend of the national navel orange market has been greatly weakened. In the market outlook, early-ripening sweet oranges from South Africa will enter the domestic Chinese market, and the market price of the navel oranges in China may fluctuate in the coming months.

European sweet orange market: a downturn in consumption + prolonged supply, the wholesale price of fresh sweet oranges in the EU did not turn up until the end of the season
In recent years, the consumption demand for fresh sweet oranges in the EU has declined steadily. It is understood that the Spanish Lemon and Grapefruit Interbranch Organisation predicts that EU citrus consumption will drop by another 3 percentage points in 2021/2022. Under the superimposition of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, more third-country sweet oranges turned to the EU market, which prompted the extension of the EU's domestic sweet orange sales. It was not until May that the supply of fresh Italian sweet oranges gradually tightened. During the same period, affected by factors such as natural disasters and man-made strikes, the purchase price of late-ripening sweet orange producing areas in the Iberian Peninsula dropped year-on-year, and even some major producing areas gave up harvesting. On the whole, the wholesale price of fresh sweet oranges in the EU rose slightly in May but continued to weaken year-on-year.

During the same period, EU imports declined, mainly from North African countries. In May, EU sweet orange imports were 47,600 tons, down 26.08% month-on-month and 30.48% year-on-year. Among them, the import volume from Egypt was 43,800 tons, down 26.53% month-on-month and down 29.28% year-on-year; the import volume from Morocco was 3,100 tons, up 33.08% month-on-month and down 39.68% year-on-year; South African sweet oranges have not yet been supplied in large quantities, only a few.

The reasons for the decline in EU imports are: first, the production of Egyptian sweet oranges has dropped by 30%; second, Morocco continues to export sweet oranges to Russia; third, the EU strengthens the entry quarantine of citrus. For instance, at the end of May, the low-temperature treatment proposal for citrus entry was passed, and also in the near future, the detection of pesticide residue indicators will be strengthened.


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