Fresh citrus production is expected to increase in MY2021/2022 across all categories: oranges, tangerines and mandarins, and grapefruit. Tangerine and mandarin production is forecast to reach 28 million metric tons (MMT) in MY2021/2022 driven by consumer demand for easy to peel varieties.
Grapefruit production growth is fueled by consumer demand for softer and juicer grapefruit varieties; imports reached a record high of 125,000 metric tons (MT) in MY2020/2021 and are expected to increase in MY2021/2022.
MY2021/2022 orange production is forecast to grow slightly to 7.6 million tons. The forecast is based on increased production in new navel planting areas in Jiangxi and higher yield in Hubei and Hunan provinces, offsetting decreases in southern Jiangxi province where citrus greening disease has affected crops for several years.
Over the past years, some producers have moved to more northern areas and Huanan and Hubei which are less impacted by citrus greening and these trees are beginning to produce more fruits. Industry insiders report that navels from Jiangxi have a higher brix level this year but the smaller sizes, caused by an early-season drought, caused prices for these fruits to decline slightly.