The national apple output in the new producing season from 2021-2022 in China is 40,216,400 tons, an increase of about 1.6% over last year, and the increase in output is not significant. The oversupply of apples will continue, and the buying and selling pressure of late-ripening Fuji in autumn will be greater.
On the one hand, the weather has had a greater impact, and the apple commoditization rate has declined: the main apple-producing areas this year have been greatly affected by the weather, resulting in slow coloring and poor brightness on the fruit surface. On the other hand, since the beginning of the debagging period, major apple-producing areas such as Shaanxi, Shandong, and Shanxi have been hit by hail, resulting in a significant increase in the proportion of fruits that suffered from hails this year. The overall commoditization rate is expected to decline by 20%-30% from 2020.
At the same time, the late-ripening Fuji is slow to color, and the harvesting quantity in the production areas is not large. As of October 21, nearly 50% of late-ripening Fuji trees have not been harvested. One is due to the slow coloring of Fuji in the production area; the other is due to the slowdown in purchases by merchants in the production area, and the demand for high- and middle-class fruits is high, and the remaining supply is mostly concentrated in average-quality.
Judging from the current situation of production and sales, the apple oversupply situation will continue. 2021 saw a slight increase in production, and the national apple production is in the recovery stage, while the consumer demand is weak, the supply is relatively loose, and the situation of oversupply is still one of surplus.
In addition, the polarization in the production areas has increased, and the higher prices for high-quality fruits can easily be reached: affected by the 20%-30% reduction in the commoditization rate of apples this year, the prices of good products in the production areas are currently running high, and there has been a slight increase compared with the initial price. However, the demand for average fruits is average, and the quality of these different sources varies. The price is mainly based on quality, and it has declined after the increase in the volume of fruits in the market.