Last month, the average price of Chinese apples rose by 1.7% m-o-m to USD 1,115/MT due to several extreme weather events in the northwest of China. China is the world’s largest producer of apples, accounting for almost half of global production. In late September, Fuxian and Luochuan, in the north of Shaanxi Province, experienced adverse weather conditions, with intense hailstorms impacting the quality of produce and reducing harvest volumes in China’s main apple-producing region.
The full extent of the hailstorm impact is not yet evident on production volume; however, according to market participants, it is estimated that apple production in the 2020/21 MY could drop by around 20% y-o-y in Luochuan. In addition, the USDA estimated a lower (y-o-y) apple production in China, a reduction of 1.9 million tons to 40.5 million in the 2020/21 MY, due to the spring frosts earlier this year.
The combined impact of the spring frosts with the hailstorms will likely damage supply further, thus supporting higher prices. As a result, Chinese apple prices are projected to continue an upward trend for the remainder of the year.