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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade

U.S. agricultural exports FY 2022 forecast up $4.0 billion to record $177.5 billion

U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2022 are projected at $177.5 billion, $4.0 billion higher than the revised forecast for the preceding year. The FY 2021 export forecast of $173.5 billion represents an increase of $9.5 billion from May’s projection, mainly due to higher livestock, poultry, and dairy exports, as well as the adoption of a new definition of “Agricultural Products.”

In FY 2021, values of fresh fruit imports are expected to grow by $1.2 billion over FY 2020 values to $15.2 billion. While fresh fruit forecast volumes were adjusted downward from the previous forecast, they are still expected to increase over FY 2020, increasing the value of imports to $12.0 billion. Although a continuing upward trend in fresh fruit imports of commodities such as bananas, avocados, strawberries, and blueberries, reduced U.S. production of citrus due to poor weather conditions also contributed to increased reliance on fruit imports this season. The trend is expected to plateau somewhat in FY 2022, resulting in a $200 million increase above FY 2021 imports. Import values of tree nuts are expected to decrease by $200 million in FY 2021 to $2.6 billion, as unit values slip due to increased global production, and remain constant in FY 2022.

Fresh vegetable imports are expected to increase $400 million from FY 2020 to FY 2021—to $10.3 billion—and are expected to hold that value in FY 2022 as current pressures on unit values and demand ease. In FY 2021, processed vegetable imports are expected to exceed the previous forecast by $200 million, due to recent uptick in volumes and unit values. Further increases in the volume of processed vegetable imports in FY 2022 are expected to result in values of $6.6 billion.

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