The orange and red grapefruit production in the state of Florida, which already is at historically low levels, will likely decline for years. Citrus economist, Tom Spreen, University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences professor emeritus, calculated Florida crop output through the 2031-32 season based on various factors.
According to Spreen’s best-case scenario, orange production would stay below the 2020-21 season level of 52.8 million boxes through the 2028-29 season. It would be 2029-30 before output reached 53.2 million boxes. To achieve the best-case scenario, growers would have to replant lost trees much more aggressively than they have in recent years.
Red grapefruit production would not reach the 2020-21 production level of 3.48 million boxes over the next ten years, even under Spreen’s best-case scenario. Under either the current 50% replanting rate or an aggressive 100% replanting rate, red grapefruit would peak at 3.16 million boxes in 2022-23 and decline from there.