All Oranges 56.0 Million Boxes
The 2020-2021 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 56.0 million boxes, up 2.0 million boxes from the January forecast. If realized, this will be 17 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 22.0 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 34.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom.
Non-Valencia Oranges 22.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is raised 2.0 million boxes to 22.0 million boxes. Size and drop components were final last month. The Row Count survey conducted January 26-27, 2021, showed 84 percent of the early and mid-season non-Valencia rows, excluding Navels, are harvested. Estimated utilization for non-Valencia oranges (including Navels) to February 1, with an allocation for non-certified fruit, is 20.6 million boxes. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast is 600,000 boxes.
Valencia Oranges 34.0 Million Boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is unchanged from the January forecast and is 34.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below average and is projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and projected to be above the maximum at harvest.
All Grapefruit 4.60 Million Boxes
The forecast of all grapefruit production is unchanged from December. The red grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 3.90 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 700 thousand boxes. Fruit size and drop are final in this report. White grapefruit final size is below average, while red grapefruit final size is above average. Drop for both white and red grapefruit is above average.
Estimated utilization for white grapefruit to February 1, with an allocation for non-certified fruit, is 312,000 boxes and for red grapefruit is 2.09 million boxes. The Row Count survey conducted January 26-27, 2021 showed 57 percent of the grapefruit rows are harvested.