According to data from the EU's Agricultural Outlook Report for 2020-2030, which was recently published by the European Commission, Europe's apple production is expected to remain stable in the next 10 years, at 11.8 Mt, with increasing yields but on a smaller surface. Community exports will decrease by 19% to 1.2 Mt. However, consumption is expected to increase by 1% to 15.7 kg as a consequence of health awareness and new varieties that better correspond to consumer preferences.
Peach and nectarine production is expected to remain stable between now and 2030 at 3.6 Mt. Consumption is expected to decline by 9% in the next decade, to 6.2 kg, due to lower availability and competition from other tropical and summer fruits. Exports should increase, especially for processed peaches, thanks to growing global demand.
According to the report, EU orange production will grow slightly + 0.6% to 6.5 Mt, thanks to increases in yields. The main producers are Spain with 52% of the orange trees and Italy with 27%. Consumers are expected to prefer fresh oranges and fresh juice over concentrates, which will cause a decrease in the demand for oranges for processing. EU imports should increase to cover any gaps in demand.
The EU's fresh tomato production is estimated to decline in the next 10 years as a result of strong international competition, climate change, pests, and an increase in demand for smaller varieties, which will lead to a decrease in volume but an increase in added value. Production is expected to remain stable in the large producing countries, except in Spain - the main producer - where production could fall by up to 20% in the next decade due to the smaller surface area, competition from third countries, lack of water, and low profitability. Consumption of processed tomatoes should remain stable over the outlook period, with a similar shift towards higher value-added products.