According to the 2020-21 California navel orange objective measurement report, the initial 2020-21 navel orange forecast stands at 84 million cartons, down 5 percent from 2019.
Of the total navel orange forecast, 81 million cartons are estimated to be in the Central Valley. Cara Cara variety navel orange production in the Central Valley is forecast at 7 million cartons.
These forecasts are based on the results of the 2020-21 navel Orange Objective Measurement (O.M.) Survey, which was conducted from June 15 to September 1, 2020. Estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage, and oranges per box were used in the statistical models estimating production.
This forecast includes production of conventional, organic, and specialty navel oranges (including Cara Cara and Blood orange varieties). Survey data indicated a fruit set per tree of 319, unchanged from the previous year but below the five-year average of 363. The average September 1 diameter was 2.198 inches, below the five-year average of 2.218 inches. The Cara Cara orange set was 251 with a diameter of 2.232 inches.
A sample of 785 navel orange groves was randomly selected proportional to county and variety bearing acreage, and 733 of the groves were utilized in this survey. Once a grove was randomly chosen and grower permission was granted, two trees were randomly selected.