Now that the new garlic harvest season is underway, Jining Greenstream Fruits & Vegetables co. Ltd. visited several garlic producing areas including Jinxiang in Shandong, Laiwu, Zhongmu in Henan, Qixian, and Pizhou in Jiangsu. Mr. Zhang Shuhan, the company's sales manager, shared their observations from this trip and made an analysis of the prospect of garlic market this season.
“Driven by high prices last year, farmers are enthusiastic about planting this season. The total planted area in 2020 has increased by about 18.2% year on year. In terms of quality, this year ’s garlic is significantly larger than the average level of previous years, with nearly 40% above 6.0# in size."
"Thanks to favorable weather conditions and improved cultivation and management of farmers, we hope to maintain the quality and high prices of the previous season. Increased production has been seen in 95% of the garlic growing centers across China. According to the data reported, only Cangshan has seen a reduced production by about 20%.
"However, since the planted area in Cangshan only accounts for 5% of the total planted area in China, it has little effect on the total production. In general, the yield per mu this year will increase by about 10% year on year, and the market supply is expected to be on par with 2018 with possible slight increases,” Mr. Zhang said.
“For the 2018 crop, as the processing volume of dried products was much higher than in previous years, a lot of stock in the cold storage was consumed, and the newly planted area decreased by more than 20%, the confidence of traders of storage garlic was boosted. Therefore, the market this year has shown a trend of declining and then rising. Although the production this year is similar to that of 2018, there are many uncertainties in the market. "
“The demand for Chinese garlic mainly comes from domestic consumption, overseas markets, and for dried products,” Zhang continued. “First, although the Indonesian market has received large volumes due to the expansion of import quotas in the past month, stocks of the 2019 crop is still huge. Secondly, although prices are not high this year, it is not easy to predict whether the processing volume of dried products will increase. Thirdly, affected by the COVID-19 outbreak, the domestic market demand this year is slightly lower than in previous years.
"In addition, the economic situation overseas is declining, and logistics challenges will have a certain impact on exports. Moreover, speculations by traders will lead the garlic market to fluctuate. Finally, this year, some powerful large warehousing companies have joined the industry, and they are also a key factor for the development of the market. Taking these five factors into consideration, I predict that garlic prices will be lower this year. "
Contact: Zhang Shuhan
Company: Jining Greenstream Fruits & Vegetables co. Ltd.
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