Market analysis of Chinese fruit prices in 2020

The Chinese fruit market was quite unstable in 2019. In the first half of the year the overall supply volume of fruit significantly declined, while the overall market demand remained stable, so that market demand exceeded supply. The price rapidly increased to one of the highest points in recent years. In the second half of the year the supply volume recovered and the price quickly returned to regular levels. The price of Chinese fruit is expected to remain relatively low in the first half of 2020.

1. Fruit supply in north China is more than sufficient. Fruit farmers expect abundant harvests. Visiting traders are quite careful with their purchases, and farmers passively store their harvests in warehouses.

2. Fruit consumption always rises around Chinese Spring Festival, but this year the market conditions are less than ideal. The level of consumption before Spring Festival was lower than in previous years, so the volume of fruit in storage is still quite high. This puts additional pressure on fruit sales in 2020.

3. The fruit production volume in south China is expected to be quite good. Feedback from production areas at the end of winter and in early spring shows that the production volume of oranges is quite high this year. The supply volume of Emperor tangerines and Orri mandarins is more than sufficient. The production volume of lychee and longan is expected to grow as well. The likelihood of abundant harvests in 2020 is very high.

The supply volume of Chinese fruit is likely very large in the first half of 2020 and market demand is not very strong. However, market conditions are expected to change in the second half of 2020. Especially after fruit farmers in north China empty their warehouses in late summer or early autumn. The pressure on sales will lighten when market supply is reduced to seasonal fruits.


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