Brazilian juice exports expected to keep rising in coming months

After decreasing last season, the Brazilian exports of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent started the 2019/20 crop (July/19 – June/20) on the rise. In July/19, Brazil exported 96.3 thousand tons of FCOJ Equivalent, 3% more than that in the same period last year, according to data from Secex.

The revenue from exports to all destinations, on the other hand, dropped 5% compared to that in July/18, to 166.16 million USD in July/19. This result reflects the price drops for orange juice, which averaged 1,672.00 USD per ton in July/19, 11% lower than in July/18.

For the coming months, Brazilian juice exports are expected to continue on the rise, due to the higher orange production in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) as well as higher needs of European processing plants. Concerning shipments to the United States, the increase in the demand from that country for the Brazilian juice will depend on Florida’s production, since greening still damages local groves.

Exports to the European Union, the number one destination for the Brazilian orange juice, totaled 78.4 thousand tons in July/19, 16% up compared to that from July/18. To the USA, on the other hand, Brazilian shipments totaled 9.7 thousand tons in July/19, a steep 45% down compared to that in the same period last year – which still reflects the supply increase in Florida in the 2018/19 season.

Inventories
The decrease in the volume shipped in 2018/19 prevented the inventories at Brazilian processing plants from hitting critical levels in June 2019. According to a report from CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) released in June, inventories at Brazilian processing plants would be at only 224.51 thousand tons, which is considered low compared to the average (in recent years, inventories were lower than that only in 2010/11 and in 2016/17).

Brazilian Markets
In the Brazilian market of oranges, prices remained stable in the first fortnight of August, due to the slower crushing pace at the large-sized processing plants from SP. In the in natura market, however, the demand for pear oranges was lower, but higher for murcott tangor. Thus, between August 1 and 15, pear orange quotes averaged 18.25 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 1% down compared to that in the first half of July/19, while murcott tangor quotes averaged 36.42 BRL per box, on tree, 9% up in the same comparison (due to an increase in supply).

For more information: 
CEPEA
Tel: +55 1934298800
Email: cepea@usp.br 
https://www.cepea.esalq.usp.br/en 


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