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Banana price forecast for June

Chinese banana price fluctuates more frequently as source of supply shifts

The price of Chinese bananas fluctuated in most production areas last week, but the fluctuation was small. The main changes occurred in several major production areas in Hainan, Guangdong, and Laos where the supply volume is relatively large. The supply from Yunnan and Myanmar is relatively small and the price is not high, so the fluctuations are smaller. At first, market demand increased because traders were preparing stock for peak consumption during Dragon Boat Festival [June 7th, 2019]. The price slightly increased in Hainan and Guangdong. Visiting traders showed great enthusiasm in placing orders for bananas. There were relatively many production areas providing market supply. Some production areas in Hainan experienced temporary shortage.

In the second half of last week the weather changed as did the competition with other seasonal fruits in the Chinese market. The enthusiasm for banana orders declined. The price of bananas was originally quite high in Laos and Hainan, but as the prices began to fluctuate, the prices of top-quality bananas and medium-quality bananas began to diverge. The price of top-quality bananas remained high, but the price of medium-quality bananas began to fall.

The banana price is now quite reasonable in Hainan, Guangdong, Yunnan, and Myanmar. The market is responsive to bananas, but recently the supply volume of other seasonal fruits increased. Competition is growing stronger. The overall supply volume of bananas therefore declined. The price of bananas is unlikely to rise again in the short term. However, the production capacity of Chinese banana production areas is limited and a significant price reduction is not likely either.


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