2018 was a year full of natural disasters for the Chinese fruit industry, including frost, hail, typhoons, and flooding. The apple production volume declined by 30% to around 30 million tons. The purchase price and retail price of apples subsequently increased. Many farmers and traders were able to profit from this development.
What are the prospects for 2019? The overall production volume of Chinese apples should recover to around 43 million tons, if the weather is favorable. Data from recent years shows that the price of apples under these circumstances will fluctuate around 2.5-4.5 yuan [0.37-0.67 USD] when the apples enter the market.
What will happen to the price of apples if Chinese production volume exceeds estimates?
On the one hand, Chinese apple farmers will have difficulty making a profit if market supply exceeds demand. On the other hand, import apples target the high-end fruit market in China, and their price is likely to remain high.
Source: Guoshu Quanzi [Fruit Tree Circle]