In the 2018/19 season, the world's orange production will increase by 4.2 million tons compared to the previous year and reach 51.8 million tons, mostly due to the favorable weather conditions that have led to greater harvests in Brazil and the United States.
This is reflected in the latest report from the United States Department of Agriculture and Food (USDA), which expects this increase in the production to translate into a global growth in the supply, both in the fresh and processed markets.
The USDA pointed out that fresh orange exports will grow by 4%, reaching more than 5.1 million tons.
The Brazilian production, according to the USDA, will grow by 13% and reach 17.8 million tons. This is a direct result of the good weather condition. Both the consumption of fresh oranges and exports will remain stable, while the volume of processed fruit will grow by 2 million and reach 12.8 million tons.
In China, the USDA expects the production to drop by 7.2 million tons, mostly due to the impact of adverse weather conditions. This is the main reason why the Jiangxi province has a small production this year. Because of this decline, imports are likely to grow. South Africa and Egypt will be the main suppliers, accounting for 60% of sales to China.
In the United States, the USDA expects a significant 41% increase compared to the previous season (up to 5 million tons), due to the good weather conditions. Florida's orange production has suffered a decline in recent years due to the introduction of organic citrus, which increases the crop's maintenance costs. Moreover, last year, the sector also suffered severe damages caused by Hurricane Irma. The latest USDA report shows some recovery compared to previous years, especially in exports, consumption and fruit for processing.
For the European Union, the production is estimated at 6.5 million tons; 4% more. This is, once again, a result of the favorable weather conditions recorded in Spain and Portugal. Imports will remain stable and the consumption of oranges, both fresh and processed, will be higher due to the large supply.
In Egypt, the harvest will reach a record 3.4 million tons; 10% more than in the previous year, mostly due to the expansion of the acreage devoted to this crop.
Given these figures, the USDA expects exports to grow by 60,000 tons, making it possible to reach a record-breaking 1.6 million tons and to account for 30% of the world's supply, with destinations like the European Union, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Ukraine.
In South Africa, the value of the production is expected to increase to 1.6 million tons (+5%) as a result of the favorable weather conditions and the expansion of the acreage. Exports will increase by 5% and reach 1.3 million tons; a figure that represents 25% of the global market, with the European Union as the main destination, followed by China and Russia.
Mexico will harvest 4.6 million tons, 100,000 more than in the previous harvest. Most of this fruit is expected to be be used for processing.
Lastly, according to the USDA, the harvest in Morocco will reach a record 1.2 million tons (18% more), with exports and consumption also increasing due to the large supply.