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China: There is a limit to the garlic price increase in 2019

A new year has arrived and the garlic price shows no sign of an upward trend. The garlic production volume greatly increased in recent years, in 2017 in particular, when the overall surface area devoted to garlic plantation doubled. The production volume continued to grow in 2018 and the overall supply volume in the garlic market greatly exceeded demand.

People in the industry think that the garlic price in 2019 must be higher than in 2018. The main reasons for this prediction are as follows:

Garlic consumption continues to grow. Research in recent years has shown the immense benefit of garlic for health and beauty, not to mention its medicinal value. People are increasingly aware of the value of garlic for their health. The sales volume of garlic therefore expands every year.

The overall surface area devoted to garlic plantation is shrinking. Many farmers decide to withdraw from the garlic industry or at least reduce the surface area devoted to garlic plantation. Farmers reduce their investment in garlic plantation and diversify to lower the risk. This is particularly true for farmers in Henan Province where large groups of farmers have withdrawn from the garlic industry.

With growing demand and a decline in production volume, the price of garlic must go up in 2019. However, there is still a large volume of garlic from the 2018 harvest left in cold storage. The garlic price increase is therefore limited.

Source: Xiao Fu Dazonghe Baijiahao

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