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Pakistan’s rupee devaluation fails to induce export growth

In Financial Year 2019, the devaluation of the rupee has failed to boost exports during the first five months (July-November) of FY19, as they rose a paltry 1% to $9.12 billion compared to $9.04 billion in the corresponding period of last year.

The major contributing factors to this meagre increase were petroleum (+61% Year-on-Year), all other items (+4% YoY) and food stuffs (+1% YoY). The growth in exports was led by wheat (100% YoY), oilseeds and nuts (+141% YoY), petroleum crude (+97% YoY), vegetables (+48% YoY), cement (+26%) and fruits (+23% YoY).

According to the latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), exports declined 6% year-on-year to $1.84 billion against $1.97 billion in the same period of last year (SPLY). The fall in exports during November was driven by a decline in the petroleum group (-24% YoY) and food group (-20% YoY).

Data released by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) for November reveals trade deficit during the month was recorded at $2.78 billion, down by 5% month-on-month.

According to Arif Habib Limited Research, 26% depreciation of the rupee in the calendar year to date, subsidies and other benefits extended to export-oriented sectors were unable to boost the country’s exports due to low agriculture output and trade war between US and China has subdued demand from China.



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