If the United Kingdom actually turns its back on the EU on 23 June, the Netherlands will be severely hit. According to the research department of Euler Hermes, Dutch exports would fall by 4.3%. Within the EU, only Germany would be more affected, with an export loss of 6.1%.
According to this research, 60% of the total export loss would correspond to four countries: Germany, France, Ireland and the Netherlands. The sectors that would most suffer the impact of a Brexit would be Finance, Automotive, Machinery & Equipment, Chemicals, Agro-food, Textiles and Energy.
The Netherlands would be severely hit by a Brexit
According to Johan Geeroms, Senior Risk Manager at Euler Hermes, the consequences for the Netherlands would be considerable. "The Dutch economy is strongly linked to the British economy. After Germany, the United Kingdom is the country's main trading partner." A Brexit would be disadvantageous in many ways. "It would lead to all sorts of restrictions on the free movement of capital, goods, services and people. Think of import tariffs and customs formalities. Borrowing costs also are higher." Geeroms expects London's position as one of the world's major financial centres to take a big hit. The importance of Sterling as reference currency will decrease, relative to the U.S. dollar, the Yen and the Euro, with disposals as a result.
Advantage of less valuable pound: cheaper imports for the Netherlands
Geeroms pinpoints a small advantage as a result of the currency fluctuations. "The pound's value is already at its lowest level since 2009. A Brexit would only intensify this decline; consequently, goods imported by the Netherlands from the UK would be cheaper." In 2014, imports amounted to 25.4 billion Euro.
In the first four years after the Brexit, Euler Hermes expects Great Britain to lose 240 billion pounds in investments. The UK would need at least ten years to cushion the blow of a Brexit.
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