Australia's horticultural sector continues to face challenges in April 2025, with weather conditions and trade developments driving volatility across key markets.
Heavy rainfall across Queensland—especially in the Atherton Tablelands, Burdekin, and Bowen—has disrupted harvests of avocados, bananas, citrus, and mixed vegetables. Quality concerns and slowed harvesting could limit fruit and vegetable availability along the East Coast in the coming weeks. Vegetable producers have also struggled to plant autumn crops like broccoli, cauliflower, carrots, kale, and spinach, potentially affecting early-winter supplies.
Cyclone Alfred, which had posed a threat to macadamia orchards, caused less damage than expected. However, the Australian Macadamia Society has revised the 2025 crop forecast slightly downward to 55,960 tonnes in-shell.
Fruit and vegetable prices have remained elevated throughout early 2025 and are expected to stay high through April. The wholesale price index for both categories is above levels seen at the same time last year. If weather disruptions ease, prices may soften in May as winter vegetables become more available. Queensland's Hass avocado season is expected to begin by late April, with prices anticipated to trend toward the $2/kg mark.
On the international front, the recent U.S. decision to impose a 10% tariff on all Australian exports is not expected to have a major direct impact on horticultural producers. The primary horticultural exports to the U.S.—citrus, dried vegetables, and macadamias—total around A$60 million annually. However, the tariff may influence broader trade dynamics. Seasonal competitors like Chile, which also faces the U.S. tariff, may redirect exports into markets traditionally served by Australia, increasing competition, especially in citrus and stone fruit categories.
The ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China remain a broader concern, as China is Australia's largest horticultural export market. A slowdown in Chinese demand could significantly affect the fruit and nut sectors.
Despite these pressures, continued domestic investment and careful monitoring of trade developments will be essential to maintaining industry resilience throughout the remainder of 2025.
For more information:
Bendigo Bank Agribusiness
Tel: +61 3 5445 0666
www.bendigobank.com.au