The November report of The National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (Enfen) revealed that the probabilities of a weak coastal La Niña increased from 18% last month to 22% in November, as the sea surface temperature (SST) will continue to be slightly cold for the remainder of the year.
According to Abraham Levy, a member of the private agency of meteorology and hydrology, Ambiand, this is a clear signal that what we are experiencing (cold SST) will lead to the occurrence of a Coastal La Niña, as has happened previously.
The institution changed the its alert system from not active to surveillance of the coastal La Niña.
However, the waters have to remain cold for five months to declare a coastal La Niña, and currently they have only been cold for two months.
"The consequences of having cold water are: temperatures on the coast will be colder than usual over the coming weeks and months, and the presence of seasonal rains in the North of the country could decrease," Levy stated.
That is to say, the effects of a coastal La Niña are inverse to those of a coastal El Niño, so there is a possibility there won't be much rainfall in the coastal areas that were affected by this phenomenon at the beginning of this year.
The Enfen also stated if there were a coastal La NIña in the central Pacific Equatorial in summer of 2018, where the probabilities of occurrence of this phenomenon are even higher (51%), the rains in the Andean regions and the Amazon would be greater than normal.
Coastal El Niño phenomenon
In October, Enfen reported that there was only an 8% possibility of a weak Coastal El Niño in Peru; a number that has now decreased to 4%.
"Unlike the coastal El Niño, La Niña has more positive effects. For example, it will promote good agricultural campaigns", stated Levy. According to the expert, La Nina would only pose a threat to the fishing activity in the remainder of the year, as the cold waters hinder the capture of anchovy in this period.
"However, the cold water and the processes that favor the cooling of water have a positive effect on the reproduction of anchovy, and consequently would favor fishing next year," noted Levy.