US: Grape exports decline 8.5%

The weather in North America has been warm and fair throughout most of the central states and extending across the country ensuring no logistical disruptions in any region and making it seem as though an especially early spring is upon us. School and university spring breaks in Canada and the US are now over and those shoppers lucky enough to have taken a week’s holiday are back at home. Retailers should be seeing a return to normal shopping patterns (if indeed, they even detected the effects of spring break).

Source: Asoex, Expordata

The table grape market in North America remains stable with moderate arrival volumes. From the supply side, the trend in table grape loadings that we have previously observed and commented upon continues: Chilean table grape exports worldwide are running at a tonnage similar to last season. However, exports to North America have declined by 8.5% while they have increased in every other market. The 6.5% increase in grape exports to Europe is being driven by increased loadings to Northern Europe (16.4%) with an actual decline in loadings to Southern Europe (- 20.0% on light volume) and Eastern Europe (- 8.0% on moderate volumes). The UK has seen a modest (3.0%) increase in loadings. The bigger news is the whopping 40.1% increase in loadings to Chile’s Far Eastern markets.

As one would expect, this diversion of 26 450 metric tons of table grapes (or roughly 3.23 million cases) away from the US market has had a salubrious effect on the general grape market. Prices have remained stable, fruit is moving through the market with no significant week to week carryover and those buyers who have opportunistically been able to purchase cheap table grapes in late-March and April will not likely see so many opportunities this season.

The benefit to growers of this healthy, relative scarcity of table grapes will extend
beyond the solid pricing that they will enjoy over the next few weeks. Many retailers (and brokers) have benefited over the years from low spot market prices brought about by market surpluses at various (and usually predictable) times of the season. With many chains unable to meet their table grape supply requirements at various times this season, more and more may be inclined to take the longer view and realize that pre-programming their grape needs at prices that allow growers to make a buck or two will, in the long-term, enhance sales and allow them to stabilize retail prices.

White Seedless
As expected, Week 12 will see a heavy arrival volume of Thompson Seedless on the east coast. Almost 1.4 million cases are slated to arrive although the vessels expected in the later part of the week will likely not see their cargo available until Week 13. But no matter because, as also expected, Week 13 will see sharp decline in Thompson Seedless arrival volumes. The vessels that are now reporting show only 446 thousand cases of Thompsons set to arrive in Week 13.

With less than 2 million cases of Thompsons arriving between Weeks 12 and 13, and with the expectation that there will be very few Thompsons arriving in Week 14, and with at least some portion of the arrivals going to be set aside for sale in April, the Thompson Seedless market continues to show strength. The only negative is that some lots are showing weak condition and more amber than is desirable.

Today, good condition Thompson Seedless are selling on the spot market at US$
22 – 24 for 700’s and US$ 20 – 22 for 500’s (that cannot pass as 700’s). There
are pre-commitments at US$ 18 – 22 but sellers will try to honor these to the
minimum degree possible under pressure from growers to harvest the $22+ market.
Thompsons showing some amber or condition issues are moving at US$ 17-19, the
extent of the amber and the condition impairment depending.

Thompson prices will only strengthen from here. To get into distribution for Easter
Weekend, fruit will need to ship late in Week 13 and early into Week 14. By the
end of Week 13, we expect to see prices inching upward. True holding fruit will do
very well if it can wait until Week 16 for loading.

Red Seedless
Crimson volumes are rising with 3.1 million cases expected between Weeks 12 and
13. This brings total Crimson arrivals through Week 13 to 3.9 million cases or a
47% increase in arrival volumes through the same week last year. It is good to see
this early volume of Crimsons especially in a year when Easter is as early as it can
possibly be. This will relieve the post – Easter pressure on Crimsons (which will
continue to arrive through Week 16 and possibly beyond).

Crimson prices through Week 12 are solidly at US$ 20 - 22 on the very active spot
market, with some pre-commitments at US$ 18 - 20. It appears that few sellers
feel any inclination to drop price, even with the strong Week 12 and 13 arrivals.
This is in part due to the general scarcity of grapes and part due to the fact that,
unlike the Thompsons, the Crimsons are showing excellent condition (if perhaps
variable color).

Black Seedless
On light (and getting lighter) arrival volumes, black seedless grapes are selling at
US$ 20 -22 for 500’s and US$ 22-24 for 700’s.

Red Globes
Red Globe expected arrivals in Weeks 12 and 13 rose dramatically no doubt brought about as a result of solid prices in the market owing to the mid-season shortage of red seedless grapes. But with Crimson arrivals on the rise, Red Globe prices have softened by US$ 2 in the last week. Today, Red Globes are selling in a range of US$ 18 – 20 for 500`s and US$ 20 – 22 for 700`s.