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AU: Agricultural growth predictions for coming years

Total Australian agricultural exports are set to rise by almost 10 per cent this financial year to $35.5 billion due to favourable breeding and growing conditions.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences will this morning release forecasts for Australia's agricultural commodities over the short to medium term to 2016-2017.

ABARES executive director Paul Morris said the forecast showed the prospects for the agricultural, fisheries and forestry sectors are positive.
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“Assuming that favourable seasonal conditions continue, earnings from farm exports are forecast to be around $35.1 billion in 2012-13, after an estimated rise of 9.4 per cent to $35.5 billion in 2011-12," Mr Morris said.

Growth predictions for fruits and vegetables:
VEGETABLES: Gross value of vegetable production is forecast to grow by 7 per cent in 2011–12 to $3.6 billion. Favourable seasonal conditions should allow higher production to outweigh the effects of lower prices.

FRUIT: Production is expected to increase by 7 per cent to $3.7 billion in 2011-12 rising to $4.1 billion in 2016-17. Major growth areas include: avocados, mangos and olives.

A more detailed breakdown includes predictions on citrus, apple and bananas:

Brazil produces 80 per cent of world orange juice exports, and it's predicted to increase after more regions were planted to orange trees. That will continue to force Australian citrus prices lower for the next 5 years.

Australia gained access to the US market in the 1990s but since then it's faced competition from cheap South African and Chilean citrus.

Despite opening the doors to Chinese and New Zealand apples, Australia imported just 703 tonnes of apples in the first half of 2011. But ABARES is predicting lower Australian apple prices and for smaller inefficient producers to exit the industry.

ABARES forecast apple production to rise to 310,000 tonnes by 2016-17, from 270,000 tonnes in 2011-12.

Australian banana production will increase by 11 per cent in 2012-13, says ABARES and because of strict quarantine, we can't import bananas. ABARES says prices will continue to be affected by climactic events.

Source: www.smh.com.au; www.abc.net.au

Publication date: 3/6/2012


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