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Mexico city wholesale price for oranges rose in 2016Summary
The report shows that the consumption of fresh oranges fell slightly compared to last year at 2.6MMT, while wholesale price increased. Fresh lime production is expected to rebound and, on the whole, production is supposed to rise slightly, while wholesale prices are fluctuating. Grapefruit production is forecast to be 432,000 MT, a marginal increase compared to MY 2015/16 production.
New/Post forecasts domestic consumption of fresh oranges at approximately 2.6MMT in MY 2016/17, slightly lower than the previous year due to lower demand and higher prices. New/Post MY 2015/16 fresh consumption estimates are revised upward due to more availability, as production was higher than expected. New/Post MY 2014/15 consumption is revised slightly upward due to a better demand. Wholesale orange prices in Mexico City were generally higher in MY 2015/16 than in the previous year. As MY 2016/17 began, prices dropped from $11.45 pesos/kg (U.S. $0.62/kg) in August to $5.02 pesos/kg (U.S. $0.26/kg) in October.
Prices should continue to decline as the orange harvest progresses. Based on information from processing industry contacts, New/Post forecasts that 1.7MMT of oranges will be delivered to commercial juice processors in MY 2016/17. Deliveries to the processing industry will depend on fresh market prices. Estimated deliveries to processors for MY 2015/16 were revised upward, based on market intelligence. New/Post MY 2014/15 processing deliveries have also been revised upward to 1.5MMT.
New/Post lime production estimate for MY 2015/16 was revised slightly upward from previous estimates as more area came into production. Key lime production in Colima is expected to rebound. The state of Colima has tried to recover from an approximate 20 - 30 percent fall in production due to citrus greening disease in MY 2013/14. Production in Colima for MY 2015/16 is expected to increase to 230,000 MT from 185,000 MT in MY 2014/15. The New/Post MY 2014/15 lime production estimate is revised upward based on official data. The state of Michoacán is also expected to have good production of Key limes.
Grower prices for Persian limes range from $700 to $4,300 pesos/MT (U.S. $38/MT to $239/MT) for the domestic market, and $4,600 to $11,225 pesos/MT or more (U .S. $255.55/MT to $623.61/MT) for the export market. Grower prices for Key limes fluctuate more than prices for Persian limes, depending on the season and the producing state. On average, Key lime grower prices range from $1,000 to $3,900 pesos/MT (U.S. $55.55/MT to $216.66/MT) or higher if limes are destined for export. The processing industry in Colima was buying fruit at about $2,300 pesos/MT (U.S. $127.77/MT).
Production is forecast to be 432,000 MT, a marginal increase compared to MY 2015/16 production. Weather was not as dry for MY 2015/16 as the previous marketing year but there was pest presence in the growing areas of Nuevo Leon and Veracruz. Michoacán enjoys better weather conditions. New/Post production estimate for MY 2015/16 remains unchanged from previous estimates due to good yields. The production estimate for MY 2014/15 is revised downward based on official data. There are two types of grapefruit planted in Mexico: the red table varieties and the white-fleshed varieties. The red table varieties are produced in Tabasco, Campeche, Michoacán, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, and Veracruz, and are mainly for export purposes as fresh fruit and peeled slices to the United States and Europe.
White-fleshed varieties are produced in Tamaulipas and Veracruz and are used for juice production or for peeled slices. Demand for peeled sliced fruit for export has increased, incentivising Tamaulipas and Veracruz producers to maintain planted of white - fleshed varieties. According to growers, planting of red varieties over the last couple of years has increased because of the higher export demand. Grower prices for grapefruit in Veracruz for MY 2015/16 were between $800 and $1,500 pesos/MT (U.S. $40 to $75/MT). Grower prices for the state of Nuevo Leon tend to be higher at about $1,600 pesos/MT (U.S. $95.12/MT) due to quality.
Michoacán has developed areas with red varieties that can be harvested from April to October/November, and grower prices tend to be higher than in Veracruz as fruit enters the market earlier in the season. From May to June 2016, grower prices for grapefruit from Michoacán ranged from $2,000 - $3,000 pesos/MT (U.S. $111.11 to $166.66/MT).
Publication date: 1/19/2017
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