Production in Italy is estimated at 2,199,526 tons, higher than last year but slightly lower (-6%) than the 2014-2016 average.
Trends are different depending on the region: both Trentino and Alto Adige are recovering from last year but remain below their full potential, while the new apple orchards planted in Piedmont mean production has increased considerably. The other regions can be compared to the levels of 2016.
Compared to the rest of Europe, Italy seems to be more dynamic. Golden Delicious is regaining ground although it lost strength compared to the previous period (-16% on 2014-2016).
Red Delicious (-3%) and Granny Smith (-5%) have gone back to the levels of 2014-2016, while the Fuji production dropped considerably (-7%). Cripps Pink is rather stable (+4% on 2017, -6% on the three year period).
Gala exceeded the average volume compared to 2014-2016 (+3). "Other varieties" continue to grow, especially the club varieties (+61% compared to 2014-2016).
Varietal analysis. Source: Assomela/CSO - Clicck here to enlarge.
Harvesting started regularly in mid-August with the earlier varieties, in line with the last few seasons. Grades have been average so far, quality is excellent and no particular phytosanitary problem has been reported.
Hail affected only limited areas causing very little damage. The weather of the past few months will probably mean the quantity of apples destined to the processing industry will be lower than in the previous season, thus going back to "normal" levels, i.e. 11-12% of the total.
Expectations for 2018/19
Considering that the information provided by Prognosfruit must be analysed within a general context and bearing in mind that a series of elements could influence the market, the data paint a rather clear picture for the next season. The apple volume available in the EC could be among the highest ever. Problems connected to drought and the related reduction in grades already visible in various countries must also be kept into consideration.
Expectations for 2018/19
Considering that the information provided by Prognosfruit must be analysed within a general context and bearing in mind that a series of elements could influence the market, the data paint a rather clear picture for the next season. The apple volume available in the EC could be among the highest ever. Problems connected to drought and the related reduction in grades already visible in various countries must also be kept into consideration.
Should the drought and high temperatures continue throughout August, the forecast will have to be reviewed. Italy and all European apple producers could benefit from the many irrigation systems, which could support production and fruit quality.
The ongoing Russian ban and the unstable economic/political situation in the main North African countries remain elements that could affect the 2018/19 apple season. A few producer countries, Italy included, suffer due to the loss of markets such as Egypt and Algeria as well as from the lack of bilateral phytosanitary agreements. The help of national and EU authorities is not just desirable as it is necessary.
There will be no produce from the previous season available at the start of the 2018/19 commercial season, which is a good thing. In addition, there are more volumes of modern varieties appreciated by the market. The processing industry could be an interesting outlet for low-quality fruit. Finally, considering the internal pressure within the European basin and the unfavourable rate exchange for "third" operators, imports from countries in the southern hemisphere are not expected to increase.
In this context, expectations for the 2018/19 season remain positive, especially when it comes to high-quality large fruit. The fact that the Italian apple sector is well organised is important for competitiveness and to lead the varietal innovation and export processes.
In the near future, the apple sector will focus even more on exports, although it needs to work as a system employing a clear policy to increasingly involve ministerial authorities.
Source: Assomela