"Faith in price development of top fruit this season"

Among Dutch and Belgian top fruit growers, Prognosfruit in the second week of August, is marked in the calendar well in advance. Last week the European top fruit estimates were presented again. Although the largest apple harvest in ten years is expected, there is no sense of panic, mainly due to the circumstances behind the figures. They know that the season is early and that the market is empty. Over half of the large harvest expected by Poland will be going to the industry and there is no stock of juice. They also point out that there is almost a shortage of good Elstar in the Netherlands and the effect of the dry spell hasn't been factored into the estimate of the Dutch figures. Outside of these effects the production won't be much different from normal, which means the market should have an excellent starting point, considering the increasing consumption of Conference pears on the German market.

NFO president Gerard van den Anker responds to the published harvest predictions of top fruit from Warsaw. "First of all the huge growth of the Polish apple cultivation stands out. I find it very exciting to see how people plan to sell this production and what export markets they will be able to find for it." Whether this growth will continue? "The price level will be highly important to this. There must undoubtedly come an end to the growth some time."

The NFO president also says it is striking that China, as the largest apple producer in the world, is expecting a production 30% lower than last year. "This means that opportunities will be created for export from EU countries to markets that would normally be supplied by China. Closer to home I expect the harvest estimates of the pears in the Netherlands and possibly in Belgium too will be adjusted down. The estimates are a snapshot of a moment, but the heat and drought will certainly have had consequences for the production. The result of the heat and dryness will be seen in the volumes harvested. In apples the sunburn causes serious afflictions and in pears the sizes will be down which automatically means less kilos." 

Gerard is optimistic about the top fruit season as a while. "I have faith in the price development this year. The Dutch consumer will have tastier apples and pears available. It's a top quality product with a lot of sugar. They may be slightly smaller, but consumers will just have to buy two. I want to show my appreciation for the input from the growers in recent weeks to irrigate their cultivation in all possible ways. It would only be fair for them to receive a fitting reward for this."

"Europe has a large harvest, comparable to 2014/15. This is largely cuased by Poland, mainly due to the production of Idared and Jonagold," says Leonard Kampschoer is FruitMasters. He calls the production in Western Europe well balanced, looking at the wider assortment. "The pear harvest is estimated to be larger and will be overtaken by the persistent dry spell and will have to be adjusted. Compared to the last five years the Conference is gaining ground in Germany and globally. Europe is waiting for cold nights to colour the apples. All in all a year with a lot of challenges."