2018 Shipped Crop to Date (in 20-pound box equivalents)
19,473,061 million boxes
As discussed in previous updates, June came in slightly heavier than the 9 million boxes projected. At this point, daily shipments confirm the general shape of the crop curve and make that information perhaps more valuable than the general total box estimates. Over the past week Northwest Cherries talked with a large number of the growers and shippers, and collectively they expect to see strong volume through the end of the month of July and into August, allowing for promotable late season opportunities.
Even last year's record-setting, early season pace doesn't hold up compared to the strong, early start this season. In the chart above of aggregated daily shipments from the Northwest, you can see that while the 2018 crop curve bears a similarity to how the 2014 and 2017 crops unfolded, it produced a lot more volume in June and through the early peak days. Below is the same chart with 2014 removed to allow a clearer year-over-year comparison.
Since July 1st, the Northwest cherry industry has maintained an average of 529,491 boxes (20-pound) shipped per day, which has increased by a daily average of 9,000 boxes since this time last week. Yesterday, the 17th of July, was the 30th day in a row of shipments since Northwest Cherries first shipped more than a half-million boxes of cherries in a day this season. The daily average for that 30-day period is 561,422 boxes daily.
In the past, Northwest has reported on the number of days in row that the collective industry shipments exceeded 500,000 boxes on average. Sundays typically see lower shipment volumes than the other 6 days, so an average is a fair calculation of the overall pace of the industry. The several days of exceptionally high volumes in June, however, make the count for this year a bit misleading. By the traditional math, yesterday (the 17th) was the 39th day in a row feeding into that cumulative daily (>500K) average. But working backwards, that string of daily averages takes us all the way back to the 8th day of shipping this season, when shipments for the day totaled 216,000 boxes. Likewise, many shippers continue to run double shifts just to keep up with the demand for the especially dark, extra sweet late-season cherries the industry is shipping right now.
While the last shipping date may be as hard to nail down as the first, a few things can be projected based on how the industry has progressed through the growing regions, the over-arching summer weather patterns, and direct feedback from the invaluable members of the crop estimate field team.
From this point forward, we will see a continued strong push of volume by the industry to support retail programs through the end of July and into early August at least. Consumers have gotten a taste for sweet cherries this season, and the projections continue to show late season fruit available to support end of summer promotions. It's the peak of the season now, but the fresh cherry opportunity won't last long. Connect with your packer/shipper contacts today to ensure your chance to offer a few of those longest-hanging late season cherries to your customers.
The U.S. grocery retail industry is perhaps one of the most competitive in the world. And when the summer rolls around, their produce departments become key in the overall health of their companies. So when a group of just over 2,000 growers in one corner of the country can say their fruit is on ad in more stores than any other for the third week in a row, then that's really saying something. Combined with Rainiers, there are (that we can track) 23,568 cherry ads circulating the United States this week, down a bit each of the past two weeks from the 4th of July high.
The yellow cherry crop is winding down for the season, but it hasn't stopped yet in the higher elevation orchards and latest districts. Northwest Cherries is still shipping solid daily volume, and obviously will exceed the pre-season estimate as the charts below illustrate. The fruit quality has been exceptional this season, and solid demand worldwide has kept the light sweet/yellow cherry harvest moving.
The above chart gives a quick look at the total shipped Northwest Rainier crops - past, present, and projected. Demand for yellow-fleshed cherries has been increasing, in part as a response to a slightly longer window of availability brought about by the relatively recent expansion of earlier-ripening sub-varieties. In the chart below, you can see the combined monthly Rainier shipments of the Northwest industry, compared to last year and 2014's similarly distributed crop.
With the second peak upon us, the media programs and promotions have narrowed in on the key to late season sales: letting customers know that the cherry season will soon be over. In-store radio ads, circular messaging, dietitian/nutritionist programs and retailer social media programs are all shifting over to "Buy Now, Freeze Now" or "Rinse, Pack, Freeze" messaging within the retail channel. Over the past few winters, the NWCG has been building and promoting holiday and winter recipes to encourage use of Northwest sweet cherries throughout the off-season. By encouraging shoppers to buy the fresh cherries now for their stated health benefits, while seeding the idea of healthy, cold-weather treats to come, Northwest Cherries is lighting up a pathway to purchase for late season sales.
But that's not to say that every message is for the future. For the past several weeks, the Northwest Cherries office has averaged at least 50 media shipments of cherries a week to influencers around the country. Aside from their own recipes and promotions, their work adds to the sudden explosion of cherry imagery and consumer messaging that they leverage to highlight the seasonality of the crop.
Customers throughout the world are driven to buy cherries, more often than not, based on the appearance of the cherries on display. Fortunately, size and color are premium this season. If you need help promoting that message, contact your Northwest Cherries representative today.
For more information;
James Michael
Tel: +1 509 453 4837
Email: james@nwcherries.com