Heavy supplies of avocados in the U.S.

“Supplies have been good. We’re transitioning away from Marcena bloom to newer fruit at different altitudes. A lot of the avocados that I see right now are darker. They’ve been on the tree for longer so they need to go,” says Austin Kachele with Sun Valley Farms LLC in Delano, Ca.

Keith Slattery of Stonehill Produce Inc. in Capistrano Beach, Ca. adds that the size of Mexico’s crop this year is significant. “It’s the biggest crop they’ve had—we’re looking at 1.2 billion lbs,” he says.

Like Kachele, Slattery also sees that the fruit coming across the border right now is more developed. “It’s fruit that should have been picked a month ago. It’s pretty high in maturity and oil content,” says Slattery. “The mid elevation should be done and they should be in the high elevation fruit. There are still some growers, because of the size of the crop, who weren’t able to get their fruit off.”

Meanwhile, Peru has just begun their season and the U.S. has started to see arrivals. Much of the Peruvian fruit has been pre-sold into the retail segment, though it’s anticipated that Peru will continue to be a factor in the US market through August

And despite supplying in a month with no promotable avocado-friendly holidays—think Cinco de Mayo in May—Slattery says going into summer still offers plenty of opportunities to promote the fruit.

All of these factors combined though has could put pressure downwards on pricing. “It’s all going to be a matter of watching that supply,” says Slattery. “If the industry continues to supply the market with over 50 million lbs., there will be a lot of pressure on price. If they’re able to keep it in balance, they should be able to get high $20 to low $30 returns.”

That said, Kachele adds that California fruit is at its peak right now and supplies will start to slow down again over the next six weeks.