First round projection for Northwest cherries

The Northwest Cherries' Field Estimate Team has compiled a first round (Round 1) projection for the 2018 Northwest fresh sweet cherry crop. Over a series of 4 rounds of projections during the fruit’s early development, this 22-person estimation team looks at the volume dynamics across all Northwest growing regions, with each member submitting data specific to their active growing districts. The data is built into an estimation model that uses field assessments, historical data, growing degree day patterns, crop expansion and average processing tonnage to formulate an estimate.

Round 1 NWCG Estimate: 22.6 million 20-pound box equivalents

This year, that data has produced a Round One estimate of 226,605 metric tons or 22.6 million (20-pound equivalent) boxes. Further details and insights about the crop to come are broken down below, including when it is expected to see that volume. However, as always it is important to note that this Round One estimate has the most potential for variance from the eventual and actual size of the crop. Spring spread slowly this year, and not all of our orchards are far enough along to determine how much of their crop will remain on the tree until harvest. These "drops" are taken into account in our subsequent estimates.

Field reports continue to mention fewer flowers per bud, which typically translates into more energy distributed into fewer cherries per tree. This has been reported across varieties. NWCG is anticipating the ability to maintain extended Rainier retail promotions this season, as the estimate is projecting a strong Rainier crop of over 2 million boxes (15-pound). If the Round 1 estimate and the weather patterns hold, then it is shaping up to be a great year for Rainier exposure, with promotable volume easily stretching past National Rainier Cherry Day on the 11th of July.

Timing is the second part of the critical equation of cherry promotion. "So while we can all agree there is still quite a bit of weather and growing yet to happen, using the data available we may begin to project a potential daily curve for the Northwest cherry industry. Below are two illustrations of the estimated timing of the 2018 Northwest cherry crop," explains James Michael.

"We reported in our last update on the cool weather which slowed the accumulation of Growing Degree Day units across the Northwest, but thankfully that weather seems to be largely behind us. In comparison to past seasons, we're still on pace to have a strong June start to the 2018 crop. The chart below shows a similar accumulation in the Yakima Valley (Harrah) and Tri-Cities growing districts. For reference, in 2015 and 2016 we shipped for at least a week in the month of May. Last season (2017) we didn't begin shipping until the eighth of June. "

"Based on shipper estimates and individual grower records, we continue to expect some early fruit during the first week of June with Chelan volume ramping up significantly during the second week. If all of these patterns continue, we will see significant volumes available to retailers in time for their June ads ... especially the June 27th break prior to the Holiday."

"Despite a few weeks of cool weather in the earlier regions, overall we’re expecting a strong start to the Northwest crop in June. The Yakima Valley had an earlier start to the year, and have maintained that heat advantage. Given that, we expect to see both regions begin picking along similar timelines which in turn should make more fruit available to retailers from the outset. This should be welcome news to retailers, who are hungry to ramp up their cherry dollars for the summer. Note that the later-producing districts like Parkdale, Brewster Flats and Wenatchee Heights are considerably lower than the earliest regions. In fact, the separation between early and late bloom is as large as we’ve seen in a decade. This strengthens the likelihood that we’ll see a solid late season opportunity this year."

"The 2018 crop on the trees gives every indication of a fantastic season to come for growers and retailers alike. Make sure your departments are ready for the arrival of the Northwest crop to take advantage of the "Light" cherry shopper. While they may typically buy only 1 bag per season, their impact results in a 65% increase in cherry dollar sales when they begin to buy. Unfortunately for most retailers, those light buyers are the impulse buyers who may or may not know Northwest cherries are available. So to expand that dollar boost back into June, make sure your cherry customers know that the Northwest crop has arrived! If you'd like help promoting that message, contact your Northwest Cherries representative today. "

For more information: www.nwcherries.com