U.S. Organic Cranberry Market - Key findings and insights
Some key findings are summed up here.
The organic cranberry market turned upward after a notable decline
Overall, the US organic food market has developed rapidly over the past 7 years. However, due to the various challenges and difficulties associated with maintaining organic production methods, many types of organic food items remain unstable.
According to IndexBox estimates, the organic cranberry market, therefore, recorded steady growth from 2011-2014, but by 2015 year-end, total consumption had contracted by 33%, and then grew again to 1.3K tonnes in 2016. However, it still 27% less than the highest level of market recorded in 2014. In value terms, the market for organic cranberry amounted to $3.9M, 3% more than the year before.
The organic cranberry market forecast correlates with the general trend in the organic products market in the U.S.: the demand for products is growing due to demand for healthy nutrition. Measures are being taken to support farmers who grow organic cranberries, which in the future will increase cranberries availability in the market, making it possible for the supply to catch up with the growing demand.
In the immediate term, it is projected that total consumption figures on the organic cranberry market will see a recovery: average annual rates of growth are set to total +0.5% to 2025. There is a risk that production will be constrained by cranberry growers opting to produce other types of organic crops or return to conventional production, but with the organic food industry developing in both the USA and in exporting countries abroad, the situation will stabilize.
The organic cranberry market will remain small in terms of scale against total cranberry consumption
Despite the increasing popularity of organic products and the awareness campaign about organic cranberries, their share in total consumption overall will remain insignificant. Of the total US market volume for cranberries, more than 99% is derived from non-organic cranberries, and only 0.3% (based on 2016) originates from organic cranberries; these figures are not set to increase dramatically in the immediate term. This is due to the fact that most of the cranberries are consumed in the processing segment, for which non-organic cranberries are used. In addition, it is very difficult to maintain the organic status of parcels of land used for the production of cranberries as wet and marshy soils is the environment favourable for fungus and other plant diseases, which are virtually impossible to control without fungicides.
Organic cranberry output began to recover
Over the period from 2011-2014, the US trend pattern for organic cranberries remained positive, and figures for this period increased more than twofold, from 801 tonnes in 2011, to 1,748 tonnes in 2014. In the next year, however, as the result of the reduction of land under cranberry cultivation, total output underwent a 35% contraction, to 1,130 tonnes. In 2016, production began to recover, increasing by 13% to 1,273 tonnes. Nevertheless, production still remains well below the maximum level of 2014.
Organic cranberry production is affected by external factors, such as insufficient rainfall and a reduction in the number of organic certified cranberry cultivation sites and areas, which could have been caused by growers opting to produce other types of organic crops.
Cranberry imports retains flat trend pattern
Total cranberry imports retain a relatively flat trend pattern over the last four years, amounted to 63K tonnes in 2016. Previously, it soared sharply in 2012, after bottoming out over 2010-2011. These supplies, however, should be referred to conventional cranberry, as there is no data on organic imports from Canada, and no Canadian cranberry supplier is certified within USDA certification system.
Canada remains the only supplier of cranberry to the U.S. Additionally, there were some imports from Chile, Mexico and the Netherlands in certain years over 2007-2016, but they were fairly negligible and did not make any significant impact in the market.
Cranberry exports stabilized after a long-term reduction
The U.S. exported 6 thousand tonnes of cranberry in 2016, which equated to $19M. American cranberry exports experienced a pronounced decline from 2007-2016 both in physical and value terms, stabilizing only over the last two years. Since there is no data available on organic cranberry exports, it is assumed that all these exports refer to the conventional product.
Canada (2.6 thousand tonnes) was the main destination for U.S. cranberry exports in 2016, comprising 41% of U.S. exports in physical and 33% in value terms. The UK (0.7K tonnes), Japan (0.6K tonnes), Korea (0.4K tonnes), Singapore (0.4K tonnes) and the Netherlands (0.3K tonnes) lagged somewhat behind, together comprising another 38% of the total exports.
Singapore (+27.2% per year from 2007-2016), Korea (+24.5% per year), Japan (+9.5% per year) emerged as the fastest-growing foreign markets for American cranberry, while supplies to Canada, the UK and the Netherlands declined over the same period. This could be a sign of increased expansion of western berries into Asian markets, which could become a new market driver in the future.
Retail prices for organic cranberry increased slightly in 2016
Organic cranberry prices grew moderately within the period from 2011 to 2013, after which they soared sharply in 2014 and following a slight downside shift went up again, reaching $ 1.32 per kg in 2016. As 2016, the average retail prices for organic cranberry in the US were roughly 74% higher than the retail prices for non-organic cranberries.
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