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Global Avocado Market - Key Findings And Insights

In 2016, the avocados market increased to 5,788K tonnes, expanding at +5.6% per year from 2007 to 2016. Over the last six years, the market displayed a consistent growth; it accelerated sharply from 2011-2016 after a period of relatively flat trend pattern with mild fluctuations from 2007 to 2010. The market value also experienced a positive trend, however, there were more pronounced fluctuations. In wholesale prices, the market totalled $13,797M, a growth by 23% over the previous year. This figure reflects total revenue of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

Mexico, the U.S. and the Dominican Republic were the major avocado consuming countries. The countries with the highest consumption were Mexico (17%), the U.S. (16%), the Dominican Republic (10%), Indonesia (5%), Colombia (5%), Peru (4%), Brazil (3%), China (3%), Kenya (3%) and Rwanda (3%). The remaining countries together comprised near 31% of global consumption.

The highest annual growth rates of avocado consumption from 2007 to 2016 were recorded in the Dominican Republic, with +14.9% growth and Peru, with +13.4% growth.

Consequently, the Dominican Republic (+5 percentage points) and Peru (+2 percentage points) strengthened their shares in terms of the global consumption from 2007 to 2016. By contrast, shares of Mexico declined 24% in 2007 to 17% in 2016 over the period under review.

Amongst the leading consuming countries, high levels of per capita consumption were recorded in the Dominican Republic (54.6 kg/year)., which was more than five times more than the world average of 10 kg/year. In this country per capita consumption rapidly by +13.6% per year from 2007-2016.

Avocados market is expected to reach 7.6M by 2025

Avocado is a fruit native to Mexico and Central America, which has been widely planted and naturalised in other Latin American countries with tropical climates as well as in the United States (in Florida and California).

Although avocado is not a product of daily demand, it continues to gain popularity around the world due to the fact that it contains lots of fibre and is rich in monounsaturated fats, vitamins and minerals. Avocado's unique nutrition profile is combined with a pleasant taste. Mexico and the U.S. are the largest avocado consumers in the world. While Mexico is also the largest producer and exporter, the U.S. mainly imports avocados from Mexico and partly exports its own avocados to neighbouring Canada.

Mexico, the largest exporter of avocados, has been increasing its shipments to the world market. Despite this, there is a shortage of supply due to the rapid growth in demand, which is reflected in price increases and growing investment in expanding avocado production.

Driven by growth of the Latin American population in the U.S., promotion of healthy eating, as well as increasing use of avocados in menus of "healthy fast food" restaurants in large cities, the avocado market performance is set to continue its upwards consumption trend in the medium term. The performance of the market is forecast to grow with an anticipated CAGR of +3.0% for the period from 2016 to 2025, which is expected to lead the market volume to 7.6M tonnes by 2025.

Mexico remained the main global producer of avocados

Production of avocados reached 5,726K tonnes in 2016, which was equal to $13,268M. Except for mild fluctuations over the beginning of the analyzed period, production volume grew steadily.

Mexico was the key world avocado producing country with an output of about 1,889K tonnes in 2016, which accounted for 33% of total global output. Mexico increased its output at the expense of expanding area under avocado cultivation with the fairly flat yield. In general, the yield in Mexico corresponded to the world average and was significantly less than in other producer countries, such as the Dominican Republic, Brazil, Indonesia and Peru. The other major producers were the Dominican Republic (11%), Peru (8%), Colombia (5%), Indonesia (5%), Brazil (4%), Chile (3%), Kenya (3%), the U.S. (3%), Rwanda (3%).

In Peru and the Dominican Republic, production levels increased by +15.8 and +14.1% annually from 2007 to 2016, attributed to growth of harvested area as well as yield improvement.
 
Approx. 32% of global avocado production was exported

Avocados is a widely traded commodity, with the share of exports in total global output being about 32% in 2016. Moreover, this share increased by +10 percentage points from 2007, which is a testament to the growth of its popularity. High trade intensity is determined mainly by the substantial distances between the main countries of avocado production and key consuming countries.

Avocados will continue to be highly traded, fueled by increasing consumption, trade liberalization policies, intense global and regional integration. However, the trade expansion could be restrained by softening growth of avocados manufacturing and increasing domestic demand in some of the major exporting countries.

Mexico strengthened its leadership in terms of global avocado exports, mainly onto the U.S. market
In 2016, global avocado export expanded to 1,848K tonnes, which equated $4,281M in value terms. Over the last few years it underwent a steady growth, with an average annual rates of +10.1% from 2007-2016. This, however, resulted from a sharp acceleration of the growth pace from 2012-2016, driven by rising supplies from Mexico to the U.S.

Mexico is a global leader in term of avocado exports, with a share of approx. 50% of global imports in physical terms. In 2016, Mexico exported 927K tonnes which accounted for 49% of its total avocados output. Of this amount, 75% was supplied to the U.S., where Mexican avocados held a 74% share of total consumption.

Besides Mexico, the largest global suppliers in 2016 were Peru (194K tonnes) and Chile (147K tonnes), with a combined share of 18% of global exports. The fastest growing suppliers from 2007 to 2016 were Mexico (+13.4% per year) and Peru (+20.0% per year), while exports from Chile remained relatively unchanged against its outset level. The Netherlands also showed a tangible export figure of 148K tonnes, but given a large amount of imports and the fact that no avocados are grown in this country, that should be referred as re-exports.

The U.S. remained the largest market for imported avocados worldwide
The volume of global imports totalled 1,910K tonnes, which equated $4,811M in 2016. Imports trend pattern generally mirrored that of exports: these trade flows globally complement each other.

In 2016, the U.S. (821K tonnes) remained the leading importer of avocados, alone comprising near 43% of the global imports. It was followed by, lagging far behind, the Netherlands (186K tonnes), France (134K tonnes), the UK (96K tonnes), Spain (87K tonnes), Canada (78K tonnes) and Japan (74K tonnes). These countries constituted the leading destinations of avocado imports, together comprising another 34% of the global imports. Amongst the major importing countries the U.S. (+10.0% per year) and the Netherlands (+15.6% per year) gained the highest annual growth rates from 2007 to 2016. However, while the U.S. imports avocados for domestic consumption, the Netherlands re-exports more than 80% of imported products, mainly to Germany and other European countries.


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Publication date: 4/16/2018


 


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