The apple market was bleak last year. Selling prices dropped and then dropped again. What about the direction of the apple market in 2018? Let us consider the following aspects:
1. The apple production volume in Shandong greatly decreased, but overall the national apple production volume increased. The overall production volume of apples in Shandong in 2017/2018 decreased by around 10% compared to the same period in the previous year. However, the apple production volume in the west, especially in Shaanxi, greatly increased and more than made up for the decreased apple production in Shandong. Therefore, the overall apple production volume in 2017 still increased in comparison with the same period in 2016. According to multiple estimates, the national apple production volume of 2017/2018 increased with around 1 million tons or so, and reached an overall production volume of around 44.88 million tons.
2. The purchasing price greatly increased, but the purchasing volume decreased. The purchasing price of apples in Shandong was higher this year than it was in the same period in the previous year. The overall purchasing volume, however, greatly fell this year. There are refrigerated warehouses with only 1/3 of the volume they had last year, some have even less. The main reason for this development is the high purchasing price. Businesses do not foresee great market prospects and they worry about the risks. Also, businesses are faced with less harvest than expected since the production volume in Shandong decreased. Furthermore, for some companies export operations were less than smooth, and this further influenced the decrease of purchasing volume.
3. Export fell in comparison with the same period in the previous year.
The majority of businesses have export as their main goal, in particular to export destinations such as India, Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia. They predominantly export small fruit in the range of 65-70. Since India limited the import of apples this year, the export volume of apples greatly decreased. The Philippines became the export destination for China with the highest export volume of apples.
4. Consumption is depressed, and transport is not smooth. For the fruit and vegetable market these are the most severe conditions since 2008. Apple transport is slow. Some businesses report transport speeds at 30-50% slower than in the same period in the previous year. Some businesses even report that the transport speed this year fell by as much as 80% in comparison with the same period in the previous year.
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Source: bestanalyst.com