Florida all-orange forecast 35 down from last season

The 2017-2018 Florida all orange forecast released yesterday by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 45 million boxes, down 1 million boxes from the January forecast. If realized, this will be 35 percent less than last season’s production. The forecast consists of 19.0 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 26 million boxes of Valencia oranges. For the previous 10 seasons, the February forecast has deviated from final production by an average of 5 percent, with 4 seasons above and 6 below, with differences ranging from 16 percent below to 10 percent above.


2012-2018 production development of Florida oranges. Source: FreshPlaza

Non-Valencia oranges 19 million boxes 
The forecast of non-Valencia production is unchanged at 19.0 million boxes. Size and Drop components were final last month. The Row Count survey conducted January 29-30, 2018, showed 97 percent of the early-midseason non-Valencia rows, excluding Navels, are harvested. Estimated utilization for non-Valencia oranges to February 1, with an allocation for non-certified fruit, is 18.6 million boxes. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, remains at 500 thousand boxes.

Valencia oranges 26.0 million boxes
The forecast of Valencia production is down 1.00 million boxes at 26.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below average and is projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and projected to be above the maximum at harvest. 

Grapefruit 4.65 million boxes 
The forecast of all grapefruit production is unchanged at 4.65 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 850 thousand boxes. The red grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 3.80 million boxes. Fruit size and drop are final in this report. Both white and red grapefruit sizes are above average. Both white and red grapefruit drop are above maximum. The Row Count survey conducted January 29-30, 2018, indicated 62 percent of the red grapefruit rows and 71 percent of the white grapefruit rows are harvested. 

Tangerines and Tangelos 860,000 boxes 
The forecast for the tangerine and tangelo production is unchanged at 860,000 boxes. If realized, this production level will be 47 percent less than last season’s production. This forecast number includes all certified tangerine and tangelo varieties.

Click here for the release from USDA.


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