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Peru: El Niño might not arrive this summer

The Multisector Commission responsible for the national study of the El Niño phenomenon (Enfen), as well as International Forecast Agencies' model results, have examined the persistence of neutral conditions in both the Niño 1+2 (Peru) and in the Central Pacific (Ecuador) regions until the end of the year. The main impacts of El Niño and La Niña usually occur during the rainy season, ie during the Peruvian summer. 

According to the Enfen, for the next summer (December 2017 - March 2018) in the Eastern Pacific (Niño 1+2 region) off the north coast of Peru, the neutral conditions (60%) are more likely followed by the conditions of La Niña (24%) and El Niño (16%). 

While neutral conditions (48%), followed by conditions of La Niña (45%) and El Niño (7%) are more likely to occur in the Central Pacific. 

At present, according to the Enfen Multisectoral Commission, sea surface temperature in the Niño 1+2 region, as well as along the coast of Peru, is on average normal.

Source: Gestion

Publication date: 9/22/2017


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