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Peru: El Niņo might not arrive this summer
The Multisector Commission responsible for the national study of the El Niņo phenomenon (Enfen), as well as International Forecast Agencies' model results, have examined the persistence of neutral conditions in both the Niņo 1+2 (Peru) and in the Central Pacific (Ecuador) regions until the end of the year. The main impacts of El Niņo and La Niņa usually occur during the rainy season, ie during the Peruvian summer.
According to the Enfen, for the next summer (December 2017 - March 2018) in the Eastern Pacific (Niņo 1+2 region) off the north coast of Peru, the neutral conditions (60%) are more likely followed by the conditions of La Niņa (24%) and El Niņo (16%).
While neutral conditions (48%), followed by conditions of La Niņa (45%) and El Niņo (7%) are more likely to occur in the Central Pacific.
At present, according to the Enfen Multisectoral Commission, sea surface temperature in the Niņo 1+2 region, as well as along the coast of Peru, is on average normal.
Publication date: 9/22/2017
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