Cinco de Mayo guacamole will be more expensive this year, as avocado prices have risen to a record high due to an increased demand and a lower harvest in Mexico and California.
According to the government, a 10-kilo (22 lb) box of Hass avocado from the state of Michoacan, Mexico's largest producer, costs 530 pesos (US $ 27.89) on Thursday.
The price, which is subject to seasonal fluctuations, is more than double what it cost a year earlier and the highest according to data from the last 19 years.
The increase in demand in recent years has been impressive. US per capita consumption stood at 6.9 pounds in 2015, 3.5 pounds more than in 2006, according to the US government.
People consume avocado for its taste and for its healthy oils and fats, a trend that has grown in the United States after Starbucks Corp.'s announced its grilled avocado sandwich last month.
"Consumption has increased in China and other areas of the world, such as Europe," said Roland Fumasi, an analyst at Rabobank in Fresno, California. "They are buying much more Mexican avocados, so there are less available for the United States."
Mexico provides 82% of the avocados consumed north of the border. Its shipments to the United States increased from 24 million pounds in 2000 to 1,760 million pounds in 2015, according to data from the Hass Avocado Board in Mission Viejo, California.
The avocado is an alternate bearing crop, as it has large harvests one year and smaller ones the next year. This season's harvest is going to be smaller, Fumasi said. In California, which provides the rest of the supply in the United States, production will decline about 44% this year, according to the state's avocado commission's forecasts.
The US chain of restaurants, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., stated earlier this week that the shortage of avocados was putting pressure on costs. Hass avocados were sold in the United States at US $ 1.27 each on April 21. A year ago, they were being sold at 98 cents, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
Cinco de Mayo
None of this is good news for those celebrating Cinco de Mayo next week. The date of the Mexican army's victory over French forces at the Battle of Puebla in 1862 has become an important celebration for the Mexican-American culture. It has also become one of the best occasions to consume guacamole in the United States, apart from the Super Bowl.
Avocado prices will remain at relatively high levels. They could remain high until summer," Fumasi said. Buyers will have to wait until fall and hope that the next season's crop in Mexico is higher so that there is enough volume to push prices down sharply," he said.
Source: gestion.pe