It is currently quite tense on the Belgian potato market. Everything indicates it will not be a regular season. “The growing season for potatoes seemed fairly normal regarding average hours of sunshine, precipitation and temperatures. These weather circumstances, however, were grouped into blocks. For example, precipitation in June turned out to be a record, and the high temperatures at the end of August were rare. Current temperatures of over 30 degrees Celsius for mid-September have never been reached before since 1901. In short, it cannot be any other way than that potatoes felt stressed during these extreme weather circumstances,” explains Romain Cools of Belgapom.
Little precipitation of significance this summer
Cools continues: “Consequences are gradually becoming clear. An area of nearly 10 per cent has been lost due to seeds not sprouting as a result of the cold spring, and the flooded fields in June. We have by now also lost hope that the situation could be straightened out by a good August and September, months that are traditionally responsible for an increase of kilograms in the potato plots. Except for some showers here and there, we have had little precipitation of significance during the summer months.”
Majority of fields not looking well
“The trial grubbing of the PCA and various other companies show that for most strains, sales score below average, and that in recent weeks few tonnes were added. Perhaps the differences in quality and quantity between strains and plots will be striking. Some potato strains are still green, and could perhaps finish with normal sales, but the majority of fields are not looking too well. Additionally, some strains are showing quality problems such as growth cracks. The scale of the impact on the total harvest will become clearer in coming weeks.”
Early potatoes still in the ground
And that is not all. “On top of that, because of drought, potatoes cannot be grubbed up in most regions in Belgium. The ground is hard as bone, and provided it rains, we could still harvest for immediate processing. Quite a number of early potatoes are still in the ground, waiting for predicted precipitation, in order to allow grubbing machines onto the plots.”
Effects on the market
The effect of the weather has by now also become clear on the market. “It should not be forgotten that the share of free potatoes in prime harvests are limited in Belgium (about 10 to 15 per cent), and the majority is in contracted cultivation. The latest Belgapom quotation of last Friday, for that matter, reported anomalous, higher prices for immediate harvesting of batches of a certain quality. The prices in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany are at the same level, with similar bases and higher prices based on strain and quality. And this despite the fact that the definitions for frying potatoes between Belgium and the Netherlands is different (for example, 35 mm or more in Belgium and France, compared with 40 mm in the Netherlands and Germany). This is sometimes forgotten.”
Not business as usual
“The effect of these extremely dry circumstances on free prices might continue into this week. If the predicted autumn starts this weekend, we might continue harvesting potatoes, and the market will then follow.” We have to wait and see what the storage harvest will look like, and which way the free market evolves for the rest of the season. “The forward market is anticipating higher prices and supports the expectations of many that the free market price would be high this year. It is impossible to yet estimate prices in shops or the production and export of frozen potatoes, but it is gradually becoming clear that, for the Belgian potato chain, it will not be business as usual for the 2016/17 season,” Cools concludes.