"There will be tough blows to the apple sector"

"Only in years with a clearly lower production, in particular due to spring frosts, such as in the west and south of Europe in 2012, will apple growers still be able to make money." This is a tough statement, but the reality according to Peter van Arkel of Fruitadvies Zuid-Limburg. "The very high European apple productions in 2014 and 2015 have caused average catastrophically low apple prices."

He continues: "The European production for 2016 seems slightly smaller than in previous years, but it certainly won't be a small apple production. This would be the third year in a row that the sales could be more difficult due to the high(er) productions. It can't really be more difficult than it was in the last two years. The Russian boycott has put everything on alert even more. On the one hand for apples, but even more for our Conference, which has been our raft in recent years, on which the Dutch and Belgian fruit cultivation has been keeping itself afloat over the last 10 years."

There will be blows
He indicates that the huge production combined with Russia dropping out as a buyer is causing problems in the fruit sector for the second year in a row. "2012 was a good year with good prices for the growers. After that it hasn't been great. Of course apple growers will remain, but growers will drop out in Europe. There will be heavy blows soon and this has been an ongoing process for the apple cultivation for years. It will happen first in countries with the highest cost price and this Western Europe, the Netherlands and Belgium in particular. The labour costs in particular in our countries are the highest in Europe. A seasonal employee from Eastern Europe costs a Dutch fruit grower around 15 Euro per hour. In Poland the same employee costs 2 to 3 Euro per hour and in Ukraine only 1 Euro per hour. That makes it hard to compete in a labour intensive cultivation like the fruit cultivation. Of course there are problems in the Eastern European apple countries at the moment, mainly due to the Russian boycott, but due to their lower cost price they will be able to hold out for longer. In addition, the varieties we grow in the Netherlands and Belgian, including the Conference and Jonagold, aren't as easy to sell on the global market. The countries in Southern Europe have a clear advantage, as they grow varieties such as; Gala, Fuji, Red Delicious, Pink Lady, which are more in demand in markets that import a lot of apples, such as Arabian countries, India and Asia."

Large harvest in Poland
"The total European production isn't known yet, it will be announced at Prognosfruit next month. "A large harvest is expected from Poland again, around as large as in 2015, around 3.6 million tonnes. This will increase in time, as a lot of new intensive plots have been planted in recent years which produce more and more. The tonnes from those modern plots are a lot higher than they used to be. Within a few years the apple production in Poland will grow to 4 million tonnes per year due to this. Some of those in Poland expect even higher productions for the future, towards 4.5 million tonnes."

Poland pays the price
"Poland has the largest apple production in Europe and is the 'price setter' in apples at the moment, particularly as far as the price of industry fruit goes. In the 70s and 80s it was Germany with its large Streu-Obstbau. Around 50-60 percent of the Polish apple production is processed in the industry. If the price of industry fruit is low this also has a negative effect on the price formation of the consumption fruit. Due to the very high stocks of apple juice among producers a low price for industry fruit is expected in Poland this autumn."

No solution
When it comes to sales the question is whether Russia will return. "If the boycott is lifted, it will be a short term breather, but not a structural solution for the future. To improve their income growers always try to raise their production, to drive down costs. It is a real rat race to increasingly lower prices. Look at milk or, soon sugar. The cultivation of fruit is a free market, but all in all it doesn't look rosy."

Solution?
"Many fruit growers disappearing in the Netherlands and Belgium won't give the other growers space. As far as apple cultivation is concerned we are a very small player in Europe. Switching to other varieties in the short term is impossible and then the question is what varieties these should be. All turning to house sales or niche markets isn't an option," says Peter. "It has been clear to me for a few years that we are growing apples for domestic consumption in the Netherlands and Belgium. With some export there is a small(er) harvest due to spring night frost. The Dutch and Belgian fruit cultivation has a problem no one sees a short term solution for. Anyone who has can speak now," concludes Peter.

For more information:
Peter van Arkel
Fruitadvies Zuid-Limburg
Bosrank 9
Gulpen 627
EG Nederland
Telefoon: (0031) (0)6 11360323
www.fruitadvies-zuidlimburg.com