CEPII report
Russian boycott has major impact on European exports
The first empirical analysis exploits monthly country-level trade data. They find strong impact of the conflict on Western exports to Russia. From December ’13 to June ’15, the total export loss is 60.2 billion USD. The major part of this loss (82.2%) is accounted for by the products that are not targeted by the Russian countersanctions.
The EU countries bear 76.7% of all trade loss. They also exploited French firm-level export data to study how firms reacted to the sanctions. Econometric results show that the military conflict in Ukraine and the sanctions reduced severely both firm export participation and the value exported.
Further analyses suggest that the disruption of the provision of trade finance services have played an important role in the decline in exports.
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