The apple marketing period 2015/16 will end soon and it will probably finish without setting a new record in the global apple trade. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) had predicted a new record in December 2015. But in June the current forecast was adjusted downwards.
Compared to the record period of 2014/15 the analysts in Washington still continue to expect a slight increase of 0.6% to 76.9 million metric tons in the production of apples worldwide. However, the demand developed less than expected in some countries. And in 2015/16 the major importing countries will import about 6.0 million metric tons of apples and that is 3.4% less than predicted in December and 1.9% less than in the previous season.
One reason is the decreased demand in Russia, which is the world's largest apple importer. The import embargo on Western countries, the devaluation of the ruble and the decreased purchasing power decreased the Russian apple consumption and thus the need for import significantly. The USDA estimates that Russia will import 725,000 metric tons, about 11% less than 2014/15. Two years ago, the imported amount was 1.25 million metric tons. Compared to the low levels of 2014/15 an increase in import by 21% is predicted, to 485,000 metric tons in the EU. But this is below average when compared to the volume of the previous years.
The USDA predicts decline of 4% to 6.27 million metric tons for the global apple export in 2015/16. In December 2015, the Washington experts forecasted a record export of almost 6.7 million metric tons. But they clearly lowered the expectations of the export business of their own country. Compared to 2014/15 the export of US apples is expected to decrease by approx. 25% to 780,000 metric tons. This will be the lowest level in six years.
The US analysts consider the EU amongst the top of the global apple exporters. However a decrease in export of 10% to almost 1.6 million metric tons (compared to the record level in 2014/15) should be considered. This is due to a 10% lower yield (12.2 million metric tons) and deteriorated market opportunities in Eastern Europe, North Africa and the Middle East according to the USDA.