The initial 2015-2016 navel orange forecast is 86 million cartons, which would be a 9 percent increase compared to last year. Out of this number, 97 percent is estimated to come out of the Central Valley.
Increased average set per tree
With a slight decrease in bearing acreage, the forecast production increase is caused by an increased average fruit set per tree as well as a higher average diameter. The estimated fruit set per tree of 412 is significantly above the five-year average of 336 and last year’s average of 333. The average September 1 diameter was 2.248, which is above the five-year average of 2.230.The forecast encompasses conventional, organic as well as specialty navel orange varieties. Cara Cara and blood orange varieties are also included.
The forecast is based on the results of the 2015-2016 navel orange Objective Measurement (O.M.) Survey, which was conducted from July 18 to September 1, 2015.
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