Reassuring start to new apple harvest
For the most of the season the prices were not profitable in relation to production costs. The large volumes, together with the excellent quality and storage potential of the apples delivered to the stores, will partially compensate for the slump in sales prices. This applies to the crop overall, but not to all the varieties: Golden Delicious suffered most of all from the plentiful supply and the weak demand from the markets, while on the other hand the prices of “Club” apples and organic products held firm, only minimally affected by the dramatic fall in the markets. Growers will be left with the bitter memory of a negative year, with a harvest of excellent quality apples mainly sold off at a below-cost price per kilo.
Prospects for the new apple harvest
European production estimates were presented in early August at the Prognosfruit congress held in Merano, in South Tyrol. If the forecasts are accurate, we are facing an excellent harvest, in terms of quantity, of about 11.9 million tonnes, but still 5% lower than in 2014. Poland, the EU-28’s largest apple producer, will be equalling last year’s record harvest with 3.75 million tonnes.
“I am confident that the new harvest is going to begin in a climate of restored confidence”, states Gerhard Dichgans, Director of the VOG Consortium, “first and foremost because Poland will have plenty of options for disposing of its record harvest. Brussels has just confirmed the EU subsidies, of which Poland is the biggest beneficiary, which will allow several hundred thousand tonnes more to be distributed to charities. The apple processing industry needs large quantities for juice production, and is prepared to pay higher prices than those of last autumn.
Moreover, Polish exporters have shown themselves capable of finding new markets for their variety assortment.”
Poland excepted, production in western Europe looks much better balanced than in 2014. There is an apple shortage in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium and - once the harvest has been completed – the -5% figure for Italy will probably be revised downwards when the actual crop data are available, after the weeks of very hot, dry weather in July and August. France is the only country where output will rise by 8%, compared to a poor harvest in 2014.
What’s more, as sales of the new harvest start, all the positive factors from the last few months will come into play: the market has been “cleaned” of stocks from the previous season; imports from the southern hemisphere have been small, and prices have been high; and apple consumption has picked up strongly, certainly encouraged by the low prices in the shops.
“Last but not least,” Mr Dichgans comments, “the Euro/dollar exchange rate is favouring exports. Last season, the EU-28 exported about 1,450,000 tonnes of apples, an increase of 17% compared to the previous year. A higher demand came from the Mediterranean and North African markets, and this upward trend may well continue during the coming months.”
For the VOG group’s 16 cooperatives, the 2015 harvest is looking good, with a volume estimated at -12% compared to the bumper harvest of 2014. The Royal Gala volumes are expected to be smaller than last year. Estimates for Fuji, Golden Delicious and Red Delicious also indicate slight falls (from 8% to 13%). There will be sharp reductions for Granny Smith and Braeburn, both of which enjoyed record harvests last autumn.
Apart from the six main varieties, the crop of Pink Lady™ is forecast lower, and volumes of Jazz®, Modì® and Kanzi® should equal those of last year. Last but not least, this autumn will see the first “commercial” harvest of Envy®, the new apple launched last autumn, eagerly awaited on the market.
So the VOG Consortium is looking forward to another year of good output, although without the records seen in 2014, with fewer apples on the trees but better fruit sizes. The first mid-August thunderstorms finally ended the cycle of hot, dry weeks, and now the cooler temperatures are giving good prospects for apples’ quality and colour.
“The autumn harvest season will also see plenty of advertising and promotional projects to support the Marlene® brand, which turns 20 this autumn,” the VOG director concludes. “Although we are not underestimating the many external factors which are affecting our markets more and more, our consortium is looking ahead to the new season with regained confidence.”
For more information:
Sabine Oberhollenzer
VOG
Tel +39-0471-256722
Email: sabine.oberhollenzer@vog.it