The subjective production forecast for the 2015 California almond crop is 1.85 billion pounds, according to a survey conducted by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Forecasted production is 1 percent below last year's production of 1.87 billion pounds and 8 percent below 2013’s production of 2.01 billion pounds. Forecasted bearing acreage for 2015 is 890 thousand. The subjective production forecast is based on a telephone survey conducted from April 14 to April 29 from a sample of almond growers. Of the 485 growers sampled, 328 reported. Acreage from these reports accounted for 29 percent of the total bearing acreage.
Earliest bloom in history
The California almond bloom began in early February. The 2015 bloom was one of the earliest almond blooms in memory. In general, the bloom was fast and compact with Monterey and Fritz blooming earlier than Nonpareils. In several instances, the lower two-thirds of trees blossomed two weeks ahead of the top possibly indicating insufficient chilling hours. Nonpareil set appears to be less than optimal while pollinators were reported as looking good overall. Nuts were sizing well with the crop pace at least two weeks ahead of normal and also ahead of last year’s early crop. Insect pressure may exceed last year but remains manageable. Water is a problem for many growers with limited amounts available for purchase. Growers irrigating with well water expressed concern regarding salinity.
Grower survey
Results of the subjective survey are based on opinions obtained from growers. The sample of growers changes from year to year and is grouped by size of operation, so all growers will be represented. Growers are asked to indicate their almond yield per acre from last year and expected yield for the current year.
Acknowledgements
A special thanks goes to the many almond farm operators and owners who provided information on their operations. The support was outstanding and we appreciate the time they spent completing telephone interviews.
Source: NASS USDA