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Peru: Uncertainty of El Niño effect on exports

Gabriela Gutierrez Hemala, the central Manager of Exports of the Association of Exporters (ADEX), said that various export sectors felt uncertain about the effects that El Niño and climate change, which included the changes in the flowering process of some crops and the disappearance of typical cold water aquatic species, among others, was going to have.

She said that crops of fruits and other vegetables would have an uncertain development due to the El Niño phenomenon, which acted indirectly on the climate. Last year, she recalled, the flowering process of several crops in the North, including the mango, was interrupted so their size was smaller.

Gutierrez added that if the temperatures and constant precipitation continued to increase, this would probably be a bad year for the agricultural campaign. She also highlighted the impact of this activity in the generation of decentralized employment. "Last year, it represented nearly 7% of the total number of shipments," she said.

"The landslides that ravaged the central highway and other regions affected adversely the crop areas and, in some cases, affected the normal operation of the companies because the workers could not go to work as their homes had been affected, or because they could not get to their places of work," she said. 

El Niño will be Moderate 
The multi-sectoral Committee in charge of studying the phenomenon of El Niño (Enfen) raised the forecast of the magnitude of the phenomenon, which would start in the Peruvian coast in May.

They stated that this phenomenon "would manifest with a warm and prolonged autumn due to the arrival of a Kelvin wave that could be as intense as the one in May 2014."

In their previous report of March 18, Enfen estimated that El Niño's magnitude would be weak. The new report indicates that they will continue monitoring the phenomenon's conditions and making permanently updated assessments and the corresponding forecasts.


Source: elregionalpiura.com.pe
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