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Putin's divide and conquer strategy?

EC publishes overview price development

The European Commission recently published an overview of the price changes for a number of products in the final weeks of 2014. Several European countries appear to be strengthening the ties with Moscow. Hungary got a visit from Putin. Greece asked Russia to lift the sanctions on the country, and the political leaders of Cyprus and Italy visited Moscow. Pakistan is exporting more citrus to Russia, the Russian inspection stopped a shipment of apples from Kazakhstan, and in the Russian city of Kirov, soft fruit has become significantly more expensive.

Price fluctuations in Europe

The EU presented a study of the price developments on the European market from week 45 of last year until week 6 this year. The results begin with a few positives: the lowering exchange rate of the euro and zloty is good for European export, making access to new markets simpler. The US lifted an old boycott of French apples, and the Commission sees an advantage in the lower supply from southern countries.



Since the boycott, there have been various reports about price fluctuations on the apple market. The average price in the countries examined (France, Poland, Italy and Germany) is remarkably lower than the average over the past three seasons. The average price fluctuated around 40 euros per 100 kilos. Over the past three years, that was around 20 euros more. Remarkably, the French and Italian apples yielded more than the average. The French even got a better price than the average price over the past three years.

The price developments for pears show a similar image, although the average price was closer to the average price over the past three years. The examined countries, Belgium, Spain and Italy, show a rather stable pear price for the weeks examined.

Polish carrots are showing a stable price development, while the Dutch carrot started a downward trend from week 50 onwards. Since the start of this year, French carrot prices have bounced back. The average is just below the three-year average. The mushroom market in the Netherlands and Spain is showing an irregular image, with a peak around the Christmas holidays.

Kiwi prices are stable above the three-year average, about 20 euros on average. Only the prices for Spanish kiwis are below the three-year average, while French, Portuguese and Italian kiwis yielded more than 120 euros per 100 kilos.

The three-year average for citrus prices is showing a downward trend. The average price for the weeks examined is stable, however. In the final weeks of 2014, the average price was more than the three-year average. During this period, Spanish citrus prices showed a revival, while prices in Italy, Greece and Portugal remained reasonably stable. The prices for lemons, on average, were equal to the three-year average, also following the downward trend of the previous seasons.

Click here for the European Commission presentation.

Putin's divide and conquer strategy?
Recently, the Russian president Putin appears to be applying a divide and conquer strategy to the EU. It started with a visited to the Hungarian prime minister in February, with a deal being made about gas supplies and Russian aid with upgrading Hungarian nuclear plants. Then Greece asked to lift the ban on Greek produce, a request that didn't fall on deaf ears. Late February, Putin received the president of Cyprus in Moscow, whom he warned for the destructive consequences of the economic sanctions for both Russia and the EU. And earlier this month, Italian prime minister Renzi visited the Russian capital. Although the conflict in Ukraine was officially on the agenda, the trade relations between the countries was also discussed. Is this a strategy of Putin's to gain the support of member states and thus undermine European unity? The Russian state media, in any case, see this as a sign that not all member states are behind the sanctions.

At the moment, the Russian government is looking into possible lifting of the sanctions against Hungary, Cyprus and Greece. One possibility is that the import of fruit and vegetables will be allowed, provided they are processed in Russia.

Pakistan exporting more
Pakistan exported more than 100,000 tonnes of kinnow to Russia this season. Since December, the country has exported 0.24 million tonnes of fruit to various destinations, of which 40% of the citrus ended up on the Russian market. According to the Pakistani exporters, the lower price of the fruit also plays a part in the increased export. The exporters' association is expecting to export 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of kinnow in the next 30 to 40 days. This means the objective for this season, an export of 0.3 million tonnes and a revenue of 200 million dollars, is achieved. In addition to Russia, Pakistan is exporting the fruit to the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, Canada and Mauritius.

Soft fruit prices Kirov significantly higher
In the Russian city of Kirov, a bit of hubbub arose about the fast increasing price of bananas at the end of February. Seeing how this fruit has to be imported, the increase could be justified, but recently readers of the local newspaper reacted with dismay to the high price for soft fruit. Moroccan strawberries are sold for 1227 roubles (19 euros). For red berries, 3671 roubles (56.93 euros) have to be paid. The advice for inhabitants of the Russian city: wait until summer, when the regionally grown soft fruit is on store shelves.

Russian inspection stops apples
The Russian inspection has stopped 20 tonnes from Kazakhstan, because the shipment didn't have the right documents. Due to the lack of these documents, the origin of the apples couldn't be determined, so the fruit was sent back.