CBS sharply lowers onion stock estimate

On January 30th CBS sharply revised (downward) the final harvest estimate for seed onions. Now there is 22,347 acres with approximately 54.6 tons/acre, instead of 58.4 tons/acre, amounting to 1,220,000 gross tons. The new figures appear to be in line with the conclusions published earlier this week in the 'Verenigde Telers Akkerbouw' (VTA), (Agricultural Farmers United), after a poll of it's members. The new estimate comes as a surprise to many exporters. Their estimate for the entire season appears to have been 70,000 to 80,000 tons too large.

With the new harvest estimate a small 19,000 tons per week would need to be exported based on the 52-week export schedule. Until the start of this new year 21,500 tons crossed the border per week, corresponding to 550,000 tons in all, which leaves 450,000 tons over for the second half of the season. That is 16,000 to 17,000 tons per week. With some quick math you can learn that about 16,000 tons is being exported to 'known' destinations per week in the second half of the season.

All in all, the second half of the season seems to be much different from what was expected by many. The Netherlands has a sorting capacity of 30,000 tons of onions per week. The question is, to what extent will the sorters adapt themselves to the availability so that supply and demand are not forced. It is indisputable that there will be a lot of tension between purchasing and selling. Exporters are also saying that marketing this type of sorting is a challenge.