One of the global challenges, for instance, is population growth. It has been estimated that fruit production will have to increase by 70% by 2040. Bob assures that “additionally, growers in some regions, such as California, are already experiencing difficulties to grow and harvest crops successfully due to the effects of droughts. Energy costs are also going up, and this has an impact over the entire supply chain.”
We also see the pressure for new varieties. “Ever since I’ve been in agriculture, one of the constants has been: more yield, more yield,” says Whitaker. “How much further can we push the genetics without venturing into other types of technologies? It’s going to be an interesting question to ask in the future.”
There is also the issue of lack of sufficient labour, as even when there is enough population to sustain it, people don’t want to work in the farm or a processing plant. “We also have the other side of the spectrum; while some places suffer food shortages, in others we waste 80% of the food before it even gets to market,” affirms Bob.
We know that technology can help us with logistics, or to reduce costs, but how is technology different from disruptive technology? Packaging, soil, water utilisation, data gathering or breeding technologies can hardly be thought of as disruptive, but augmenting. “What we do know is that in order to use and be prepared for game-changing technologies we have to be open to them to overcome the initial period of chaos.”
The futurist Jack Uldrich talks about thousand-fold changes, where things change very rapidly, exponentially. Bon affirms that “this sort of change, such as the evolution of mobile phones, television sets or computers over the past 30 years, is the one that can be disruptive to our industry if we are not watching out and taking every opportunity available to improve our businesses.”
In the agricultural industry, the first great change comes from transparency. “In global terms, we have a tremendously complicated supply chain for produce; it makes the job for regulators incredibly tough, and the real driver for traceability has been in the food safety arena; the ability to recall food and know where it is.”
“If you can map where the food has been, you can manage your supply chain and logistics much more effectively. You can determine points where there is waste, take measurements along the line. The companies that invested in traceability for food safety reasons have found many ways to profit from it when looking at the logistics and raw product management.”
“When you introduce transparency, you provide it also to the system; your every operation becomes visible to consumers, they know exactly where the product has been and the cost that has gone into it, as well as the food safety techniques that were employed. It certainly brings an interesting challenge moving forward.”
Another great technological change comes from genomics. “Originally, the goal was to produce fruits and vegetables that tasted better, that had better qualities to drive consumption; sometimes, all you really want is to be consistent. The issue with this is that the genetics of the plant were extremely hard to understand; there was no way to handle all the data,” explains Bob.
“Today, however, we can map those genes and identify the qualities they provide to the fruit. This enabled us to make crosses and isolate the DNA, allowing individuals to select changes that drive them forward. Those genes are markers that help us trace the qualities we may be interested in. Whole genome sequencing additionally allows us to identify and isolate pathogens in a faster and cheaper way than ever before.”
Genomics can be characterised as the difference between using a handheld telescope in your backyard or the Hubble telescope that is already circulating around the world. “Changes occur very rapidly, and computational capacity, that is, our ability to handle large blocks of data, is what really enables us to use that technology to change our industries. If it can be done, it will be done, and if you don’t do it, somebody else will, and your business will reflect that,” concludes Bob Whitaker.