With the value of fruit and nuts driving a good portion of the growth, the value of U.S. horticultural crops is expected to rise over the next decade. While the value of vegetables is also expected to increase, the projected growth of that sector is not as impressive as that for fruit and nuts.
Farm sales of horticultural crops are expected to increase annually by 1.2 percent over the next decade, according to the USDA's Long Term Projections report released this month. That average growth is expected to take the value of horticultural crop sales from $66.0 billion in 2013 to $74.0 billion in 2023. Fruit and nut sales are expected to be a significant driver of that growth.
Over the next decade, it's estimated that the value of fruit and tree nuts will increase at an annual rate of 2.2 percent into 2023, which is better than the expected annual growth rate for vegetables and greenhouse and nursery crops, which are 0.2 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.
The volume of horticultural crops, however, is expected to be driven by the vegetable category, with an estimated annual growth rate of 0.5% over the next decade. In 2023, the volume of vegetables in the United States is slated to reach 132 billion pounds, compared to the 71 billion pounds for fruit and nuts. Over the next 10 years, producer prices for vegetables are expected to increase, nominally, by 0.7 percent every year, which is below the rate of inflation, while producer prices for fruit and nuts are expected to increase 1.9 percent annually.
The report also highlights the rate at which domestic supplies of horticultural crops are being supplanted by foreign imports. While the trade deficit in horticultural crops was $12.8 billion in fiscal year 2013, that figure is expected to rise to $23.1 billion in 2023. In fact, it's estimated that by 2023 half of all fruit and nut use in the United States will be supplied by imports, which are expected to have a value of $71.0 billion. It's also estimated that a quarter of all domestic vegetable use will be supplied by imports in 2023, up from 19 percent in 2013.
But if U.S. consumers are becoming more dependent on foreign suppliers, so, too, are U.S. producers becoming more dependent on foreign markets. By 2023, it's estimated that 27.0 percent of all fruit and nuts grown in the United States will go to export, which is higher than the 24.0 percent of fruit and nuts that went to foreign markets in 2013. Vegetable exports reached 16.7 percent in 2013, and that mark is expected to increase to 20.0 percent in 2023.