Mexican apple harvest dropping by 14%

Mexico 's 2005-06 apple crop is expected to sink 14% to around 495,000 metric tons (MT), because weather conditions in Chihuahua, the main apple producing state, have not been favorable for apple production.

The U.S. agricultural attache for the country said, "Freezing temperatures, as well as hailstorms, during the month of May and during harvesting season have damaged a number of orchards. The severe weather has primarily affected Red Delicious varieties, which may result in lower quality and smaller sized apples."

Apple consumption for 2005-06 is forecast at 558,000 MT, down 15% compared to 2004-05. The expected decrease in consumption is mainly attributed to lower supplies and higher prices.

At this point it is unclear what level of anti-dumping duties the Ministry of Economy will apply to U.S. Red and Golden Delicious apples for 2005-06, but an announcement is expected by mid-September 2005. Antidumping duties applied to U.S. Red and Golden Delicious apples have kept apple volumes relatively low, compared to pre-2002-03 levels.

However, in May 2005 the Secretariat of Economy restarted the apple antidumping investigation. While the outcome of the investigation is unknown, at least until a new resolution is published, U.S. apples will continue to have access to the Mexican market at zero duty. Implementation of a high compensatory duty could restrict demand and push import volumes below the current 2005-06 forecast. 2004-05 apple consumption reflects the increase in availability. 2003-04 apple consumption data was revised downward due to lower availability of fruit.

According to growers, demand for apples for processing has not changed significantly this past year, largely due to reduced demand from the juice industry. Apples for the processing industry for 2005-06 are forecast to decrease to approximately 87,000 MT due to lower production levels, but the final amount will depend upon international prices for concentrated apple juice. However, currently, the outlook for these prices is not favorable. The estimate for apple supplies for processing for 2003-04 and 2004-05 remains unchanged.

From January to March domestic apple production competes with other fruits like mango and papaya. Prices for domestic apples were slightly lower during 2005 compared to 2004 due to higher domestic production. U.S. apple imports had a significant market presence between April 2005 and the onset of harvest, and were sold at lower prices compared to 2004.

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